FXUS62 KILM 150600 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 100 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build eastward over the next few days, bringing mainly clear skies and seasonable temperatures. Low pressure approaching from the northwest will bring clouds and a small chance for rain this weekend. Colder temperatures and dry weather should develop behind this system next week. && .UPDATE... No major changes from the ongoing forecast with this update. Contrary to last night, many locations are failing to decouple, resulting in quite the spread in temps across the forecast area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Very quiet conditions through Thursday as weak high pressure will move offshore and a somewhat warming southwest flow develops in time. Lows tonight under all but ideal radiational conditions will drop to the usual wide range of values typical of this setup from the lower 30s in the colder spots to the middle to upper 30s elsewhere. Thursday's highs under mostly sunny skies will tack on around five degrees or so from todays values generally in the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A weak shortwave aloft will be moving offshore by the start of the period with surface low pressure passing to the north. The cold front will make a dry passage and should be through by the morning with ridging building in from the south and high pressure to our south. As moisture starts to move in along the ridge, cirrus will build in overnight with more mid-level cloudiness by Friday morning. Conditions will remain dry with above seasonable temperatures, highs in the mid-upper 60s and lows in the 40s nearing 50 Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rain chances will increase through the start of the period as a low pressure system approaches from the northwest. This system is expected to remain north of the area as it pushes offshore Sat morning, but its cold front will drag through the area. Still keeping rain chances low due to marginal increases in moisture and better forcing to the north. Sun looks to be the coldest day in the period due to the passage of the cold front but high pressure building in from the south early next week will allow temperatures to recover to near normal with persistent dry conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with initially SW winds backing to SSW today. Tightening pressure gradient and increased low-level flow due to strengthening low pressure passing to the north will lead to gusty winds this afternoon. Gustiness will relax after sunset, although SW flow will persist through the night. Extended Outlook...VFR to dominate through Friday night with a threat for MVFR cigs on Saturday as a cold front drops down from the north. Expect VFR to return for Saturday night and beyond as low-level drying takes place. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Very benign conditions for the coastal waters mirroring the near term forecast as weak high pressure resides across the area. Wind direction will be somewhat erratic overnight with the weak flow but officially its noted as westerly. For Thursday a somewhat better defined southwest flow will develop later in the day with speeds of 10-15 knots. Significant seas will be 1-2 feet. Thursday Night through Monday...A dry cold front will push offshore overnight before Fri morning with winds becoming briefly light and NWly. Winds will become SWly Fri evening through Fri night as a low pressure system approaches the area from the northwest. The low will move offshore Sat morning with wind speeds increasing to 15-20 kts and becoming NEly. Winds will decrease after high pressure starts to build in Sun. Seas will be largely 2-3 ft with some 4 footers possible Sat with the passage of the low. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...ABW NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...ABW MARINE...SHK/LEW