FXUS62 KILM 151729 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1229 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will generally prevail with dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday night. A mainly dry cold front will move through Saturday and Saturday night bringing a brief bout of colder weather early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak mid-level ridging will be punctuated by a passing shortwave trough late in the day. Mid-level cloudiness associated with subtle lift ahead of the shortwave may graze our northern tier of counties (Robeson, Bladen, Pender) around midday. Otherwise, with surface high pressure offshore providing southwesterly flow, a mild day is on tap with mainly sunny skies driving temperatures 5-10F above normal, in the mid-60s to near 70F. Strengthening low pressure passing to the north will tighten the pressure gradient today, leading to gusty winds this afternoon. Tonight, a cold front approaches from the north as the aforementioned low shifts across New England to Nova Scotia by daybreak. This will cause winds to veer from southwesterly to westerly overnight as the front nears and these winds should preclude much radiational cooling tonight, leading to lows mainly in the middle 40s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: Mainly dry cold frontal passage Saturday; no significant hazards expected Confidence: Moderate to High Details: High pressure and dry weather will prevail until a cold front moves through Saturday. Although there will be some shortwave energy aloft, it will likely be too dry for much rain. At this time it appears the best chance for a few showers will be Saturday into early Saturday night, mainly near the SC coast. Temps should be above normal through Friday night before falling back closer to normal Saturday (possibly peaking earlier in the day than usual prior to the frontal passage) and then getting back below normal Saturday night when it should be near freezing inland. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights: Cooler high pressure through early week; warming but still dry into mid week; no significant hazards expected Confidence: Moderate to High Details: High pressure will generally prevail at the lower to mid- levels, although a bit stronger mid-level trough looks to move through Tuesday night. However, moisture will once again be lacking so rainfall will be very tough to come by. We did trend toward lower dewpoints (especially during the day) and lower temps (especially at night) given the pattern. Temps will start out the period below normal but pretty quickly get back closer to normal starting Monday and even above normal starting Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the period with little to no chance for any restrictions. A weak boundary will move across with winds acquiring a northerly component although any push or surge is somewhat weak. Extended Outlook...VFR to dominate through Fri night with a low threat for flight restrictions Sat aftn/night, possibly into early Sun near the coast, as a cold front passes through. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...With high pressure slowly moving offshore, winds will back to SSWrly today, driving 1-2 ft wind waves through the day. A tightening pressure gradient will cause winds to increase to 10-15 kts this afternoon and persist through the night as a cold front approaches from the north. This will also force winds to veer to westerly late in the night as the front draws near. Seas respond by rising into the 2-3 ft range overnight, driven mainly by wind waves. An ENE 1 ft backswell at 11 sec looks to be in play through the period as well. Friday through Monday...High pressure will generally prevail until a cold front moves through Saturday aftn/night. High pressure will then build in early next week with improving conditions. Although we do expect pre-frontal and post-frontal wind surges Friday night through Saturday night, it looks like winds and definitely seas will remain mostly below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...RJB/ABW