FXUS62 KILM 152023 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 323 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will generally prevail with dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday night. A mainly dry cold front will move through Saturday and Saturday night bringing a brief bout of colder weather for the west of the weekend. Building high pressure will lead to continued warming through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overall conditions will continue to be quiet across the area through Friday although with a couple of moving parts. The first is a weak boundary settling across the area tonight which will bring a subtle wind shift and a slightly cooler airmass although with recent guidance a bit lagging confidence is a bit muted. Lows tonight will be in the boundary layer mixed middle 40s. Highs Friday in the middle to upper 60s as some mid to high level moisture moves across with the system well to the southwest. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions will remain in place through Fri night with increasing SWly flow and cloudy skies leading to lows in the mid- upper 40s for SE NC and near 50 for NE SC. Low pressure inland to our west will continue northeast overnight, moving offshore from VA by Sat morning. A small increase in moisture ahead of the system's cold front will lead to a line of light showers moving through the area from NW to SE through Sat. Little accumulation is expected with this system and the front should be offshore by Sat night. Highs Sat will be highest along the coast in the low to possibly mid 60s while inland could fall into the upper 50s due to the colder air behind the front. Clouds and a breeze should linger through Sat night reducing radiational cooling but lows could still fall near freezing far inland, a majority of the area seeing low-mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sun still looks to be the coldest day in the period due to continued cold air advection highs near 50 and lows near freezing. Ridging then looks to build in from the south with high pressure moving in from the west as warm air advection moderates temperatures. The high should be overhead by Tue with another system approaching towards the end of the period. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the period with little to no chance for any restrictions. A weak boundary will move across with winds acquiring a northerly component although any push or surge is somewhat weak. Extended Outlook...VFR to dominate through Fri night with a low threat for flight restrictions Sat aftn/night, possibly into early Sun near the coast, as a cold front passes through. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Southwest winds will increase across the waters tonight into a range of 10-15 knots ahead of an approaching cold front. Not much if any of a surge in the wake of this boundary with a brief offshore flow transitioning to what could be argued a sea breeze influenced weak onshore flow by later Friday. Significant seas...currently around 2-3 feet may increase briefly to the higher end of a 2-4 foot range with the increase in winds then trend back down Friday afternoon. Friday Night through Tuesday...Winds will veer from the SE to the SW overnight into Sat morning as low pressure passes to our north, becoming NWly by the afternoon as the system's cold front pushes offshore. Gusts could near ~25 kts but conditions should remain below advisory criteria. Lighter Nly winds should prevail Sun through the end of the period. Seas 2-4 ft over the weekend will diminish to largely 2 ft through the rest of the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...SHK MARINE...SHK/LEW