FXUS62 KMHX 150911 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 411 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front stalled across the area this morning will return north as a warm front later today. A dry cold front will push through the area late tonight with weak high pressure build in Friday. An area of low pressure will pass west and north of the area late Friday night with a trailing, mainly dry, cold front pushing through the area on Saturday. High pressure builds back into the area early to middle portion of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 2 AM Thursday...A stationary front is currently draped across the forecast area from west to east roughly along the Neuse River. This boundary will shift south over the next few hours before lifting north as a warm front later today. Behind the front, our winds turn to the SW and will gust to 15-20 kt. Highs will get into the upper 60s inland but stay closer to the mid 50s for coastal areas and the OBX (low 50s NOBX). && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 2 AM Thursday...SW winds will continue to gust to around 15 kt through late tonight. After midnight, a fairly moisture starved cold front will push across ENC and shift winds to the NW. Mid and high level clouds will increase but no precip is expected. Lows will be about 10 degrees warmer than last night with the entire area staying around the mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM Thursday...The latest models continue a trend of mainly dry weather with very little to no precipitation expected over the next 7 days (through mid next week). Weak high pressure builds in Friday but quickly moves offshore Friday evening as a northern stream shortwave dives across the Midwest. An attendant sfc low will track across the Southern Appalachians and off the SE VA coast toward daybreak with the trailing cold front pushing through ENC Saturday morning. With best forcing remaining north of the area and moisture limited with deep westerly downslope flow, little to no precip is expected with this system. NBM continues to trend drier as guidance has been dry the past few cycles with PoPs around 20% or less. Temps will be a few degrees above normal Friday, then will be near normal Saturday due to greater cloud cover and weak CAA developing during the afternoon. A series of mid-level troughs push across the area early to middle portion of next week, however sfc high pressure will continue to dominate with dry conditions prevailing across ENC with any sfc low development occuring well offshore. However, expect a coastal trough to develop near the Gulf Stream toward the middle of next week that could be the focus for a few showers off the coast. Sunday will be the coolest day of the long term with highs around 50 inland to mid and upper 40s along the coast. Temps moderate to near normal on Monday with a warming trend continuing into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 1 AM Thursday...Pred VFR through the period. A stationary front is currently draped across the forecast area from west to east roughly along the Neuse River. This boundary is expected to shift south overnight and could become a source of pooled moisture. This moisture plus great radiational cooling conditions will give fog a chance to develop at terminals near the boundary, so have kept TEMPO groups for 5SM VIS for EWN, OAJ, and ISO through the early morning hours. As this boundary moves north as a warm front tomorrow, SSW winds will pick up to around 10 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt. Skies should remain clear other than some high clouds for a few hours in the afternoon. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 345 AM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected in the long term. Weak high pressure builds in Friday with a frontal system with limited moisture pushing through the area Saturday. Cannot rule out a brief period of sub-VFR conditions Saturday but probabilities are decreasing. High pressure builds back into the area early next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Winds remain variable through the first half of the day as a stationary front is draped west to east across the area. Later this afternoon, SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Tonight, SW increase to 25-30 kt. A cold front will cross the area late tonight/early tomorrow morning and winds will shift to the WNW at 15-20 kt. Tonight, 3-5 ft seas increase to 6-7 ft between Oregon Inlet and Cape Lookout, so a SCA is in effect from 00Z to 09Z. Seas will decrease back to 3-5 ft near dawn tomorrow. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 4 AM Thursday...High pressure builds into the waters Friday, then slides offshore late in the day. Wly winds around 10-15 kt will veer to the N then E to NE by late afternoon. Winds continue to veer to S to SWly while increasing to 10-20 kt by late Friday night ahead of the next cold front. Could see some gusts to 25 kt over the southern/central coastal waters ahead of the front. The front will push through during the day Saturday with NW to N winds around 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt as CAA behind the departing front, diminishing to 10-15 kt Saturday night. High pressure builds over the area Sunday and Monday bringing light winds around 10 kt or less. Seas around 2-4 ft on Friday builds to 3-5 ft Saturday in response to stronger winds. Seas then subside to 2-4 ft Saturday night and to 1-3 ft Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/OJC MARINE...SK/OJC