FXUS66 KPDT 151039 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 239 AM PST Thu Feb 15 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...Latest satellite imagery shows an area of low pressure centered right around the Oregon/Washington border near Astoria. Guidance has this low pushing eastward today as it is picked up by a NW-oriented trough situated over the PacNW. The forecast area will then be enveloped by precip through the early morning hours, before letting up a bit during the day Thursday. A band of snow will then develop late Thursday into early Friday morning as warmer air surges in ahead of a building ridge, leading to frontogenesis. Friday looks mostly dry before another shot of moisture from the SW brings a chance of light precip on Saturday. No significant changes to ongoing winter weather headlines as the bulk of the moisture expected with this ongoing low pressure system is expected to occur through the early morning hours today, before its absorption into the trough provides for a bit of a respite for the remainder of the day. Only real change was to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for central Oregon out until early morning Friday. While conditions are dry there for now, the snow band expected to develop overnight Thursday into Friday could dump another 1-3 inches of snow for the area, so went ahead and extended the ongoing product rather than create a new one altogether. Decent snowfall accumulations have already occurred across north central Oregon as a result of the initial lifting of the low, with the bulk of the precip for the foothills of the Cascades from Oregon through south- central Washington expected to occur as a result of the low's inland push. Some precip is expected to spill over into the Basin through the morning hours, however latest CAMs are very meek on QPF, and borderline temps with dewpoints in the low 30s suggest that even if snow does materialize, amounts will be light and of little impact. Warming during the daylight hours will then preclude any wintry precip for the rest of the day. As a result of the light precip received yesterday, along with light winds across the Basin, fog and low clouds have formed, with dense fog having been observed along the foothills of the Blues and into the mountain passes, where Dense Fog Advisories are in effect through noon. Some of this colder air may settle into the Basin over the next few days even as warmer air advects in aloft, so low clouds may persist heading into the weekend. The last of the precip associated with this system looks to taper off by daybreak Friday based on latest CAMs. Transitory ridging then builds in, before SW flow pumps in another round of moisture into the forecast area heading into Saturday. QPF forecast thus far, however, suggests very light precip with this next round. Evans/74 .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Sensible weather concerns through the long term forecast will revolve around an upper low offshore producing periods of mountain snow and lower elevation light rain into the middle of next week. Ensemble guidance in good agreement that a shortwave trough will continue east across the forecast area as it ejects from the upper low offshore OR and undercuts an upper ridge centered just east of the forecast area Sunday. There is moderate-high confidence (60-75%) that the heaviest mixed precipitation and mountain snow will occur as the shortwave axis passes overhead in the morning Sunday. Behind the shortwave exit Sunday afternoon, precipitation chances will diminish area-wide, except for light snow flurries that will be possible along the Cascade crest and interior Blues/Wallowas. Overall, ensemble guidance is leaning towards light snow accumulations in the mountains, with 90th percentile snow amounts in the NBM only at 4 to 5 inches across the Cascade crest, and the interior northern Blues; lower elevation 90th percentile snow accumulations only top 1 inch. Monday into Tuesday, the ensemble cluster guidance shows the upper low offshore weakening and becoming an open trough by early Tuesday morning, then pushing onshore through Tuesday night. Ensemble members of the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian suites do show uncertainty in the track of the shortwave as it pushes east. While nearly all the members making up the cluster solutions do show light rain and mountain snow chances across the forecast area, a majority of the ECMWF and Canadian solutions indicate a more northerly track resulting in better precipitation chances in the mountains but drying out still in the lower elevations by Tuesday afternoon; meanwhile, the GFS shows the shortwave trough further south resulting in precipitation chances diminishing by Tuesday afternoon area-wide. At this time, clusters are nearly split in either solution, resulting in low-mod (25-40%) confidence in extent of precipitation chances. Wednesday into Thursday, ensemble guidance are in good agreement that upper level ridging will build over the PacNW behind the shortwave trough exit to the east. Moderate confidence (40%) that light upslope mountain snow will continue along the Cascade crests, northern Blue, and Wallowas through Wednesday as the ridge places the forecast area under a west northwest flow aloft, but as the ridge axis moves into the intermountain PacNW, light precipitation will come mostly to an end. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION...Previous Discussion...06Z TAFs...From now through Thursday morning, conditions will be IFR or less for most of the terminal airports. Snow or mixed rain/snow will be observed. Fog has or will develop in the vicinity of PDT and ALW. Snow accumulations will occur along runways, mainly at DLS, RDM, BDN and PDT...but additional amounts will be 1 inch or less. On Thursday afternoon as the main upper low travels eastward, conditions will improve but areas of MVFR can still be expected. Forecast soundings shows a dry layer between -10 to -20C that would indicate little dendritic growth and very light snow or none at all. However, the next band of precipitation Thursday night will cause a return to snow at BDN and RDM by 06Z. Winds will generally be 15 kts or less for the next 24 hours. Wister/85 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 35 25 35 23 / 80 50 10 0 ALW 36 27 37 26 / 100 50 10 0 PSC 39 28 41 27 / 90 30 10 0 YKM 38 24 40 26 / 80 20 10 10 HRI 38 28 39 26 / 80 40 10 10 ELN 37 22 38 24 / 70 10 10 0 RDM 44 24 34 24 / 40 80 10 20 LGD 44 26 40 24 / 90 70 10 0 GCD 45 30 44 29 / 60 80 10 10 DLS 39 32 39 31 / 90 70 20 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ041-508>510. Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ502-507. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ502-511. WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Friday for WAZ024-523. Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for WAZ029. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for WAZ030-521-522. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....82 AVIATION...85