FXUS01 KWBC 151938 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 237 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 00Z Fri Feb 16 2024 - 00Z Sun Feb 18 2024 ...Fast moving areas of low pressures to produce widespread accumulating snows across the Central Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, Mid Atlantic, Northern New York and New England... ...Heavy precipitation to move into Northern to Central California on Saturday... ...Heavy rains possible for South Texas... ...Below average temperatures to spread southeast from the Northern Plains... ...Active Lake effect snows downwind of the Great Lakes Friday and Saturday... Two fast moving areas of low pressure pushing from west to east will be producing widespread areas of accumulating snows across large portions of the Lower 48. The lead area of low pressure will be moving eastward tonight from the eastern Lakes region, across northern NY State and into New England. This system will produce a brief period of snow, with accumulations of several inches from northern New York State into portions of central to northern New England. In the wake of this system, cold air moving across the relatively warm and ice free Great Lakes will support widespread lake effect snow showers downwind of the Great Lakes. Locally heavy snowfall totals possible in the favored lake effect areas across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and across portions of north central to northwest New York State, to the east of Lake Ontario. This first fast moving area of low pressure will be followed by a second moving quickly east northeast from the Southern Plains Friday, into the Tennessee Valley Friday night and off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Saturday. An area of snow will develop well to the north of the surface low track, with accumulating snows possible from portions of the Central Plains. east into the Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. The fast movement of this system will a detriment to heavy totals, with generally 1 to 3 inches of accumulation forecast across these areas, with isolated heavier totals possible. In the wake of both of these fast moving areas of low pressure, below average temperatures will be spreading south and southeastward from the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. This will produce a below average temperature day on Friday across the Northern to Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, with these below average temperatures spreading south into the Southern Plains and eastward into the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Saturday. While these colder than average temperatures are a departure from recent warmth across this regions, the cold shot will be short lived with temperatures warming from west to east late in the weekend and into next week. The current stormy pattern across the eastern Pacific will be pressing eastward on Friday into Saturday, with heavy precipitation pushing back into Northern to Central California on Saturday. This precipitation is the beginning of a wetter pattern for California, with additional heavy precipitation likely for much of California for the beginning of next week. The first round of heavy precipitation does have the potential to produce isolated flash flooding across the central to northern California coastal regions. The additional heavy rains slated for early next week will also pose a flash flood threat, with this threat pushing farther to the south into central to southern California. An expanding area of rain also likely to develop Thursday night/early Friday morning across South Texas, persisting into the day on Saturday. This rainfall will also push east northeastward Friday into Saturday along the northern Gulf coast and into North Florida. The heaviest totals expected for South Texas where rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible. Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$