ACUS11 KWNS 051007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051007
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-051230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0407 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

Areas affected...eastern Texas into parts of Arkansas and Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051007Z - 051230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms will persist this morning from eastern
Texas into western Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, and western
Louisiana. Sporadic severe hail will remain possible with the
stronger cells, but coverage and severity does not warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints is in place
over the region, ahead of a surface trough extending from
south-central MO across southeast OK and into northern TX. Although
low-level winds and surface convergence are relatively weak, the
influence of a midlevel shortwave is resulting in sufficient lift to
support development.

Various clusters of cells are ongoing from eastern TX into AR, with
weaker development even farther north. However, the greatest threat
of hail over 1.00" diameter over the next several hours should be
near the instability axis from southeast OK and the Arklatex
southward, where MUCAPE is over 2000 J/kg.

Lack of deep-layer shear is likely minimizing the severe risk to an
extent, with 500 mb winds only around 25 kt where the storms are
ongoing. Stronger speeds do exist farther south along the TX Coast
and toward southern LA, currently removed from the zone of ascent.
As such, the threat of sporadic, short-lived hail cores is forecast
to persist through the morning, shifting slowly east with the
midlevel wave. Cells over southern areas may experience a more
favorable shear environment, and an isolated hail report to around
1.75" cannot be ruled out.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   30909291 30569347 30529417 30619483 30849531 31259564
            32139611 32739625 33569634 34129603 34589553 34759487
            34709408 34429339 34049305 32519273 32069262 31409273
            30909291