FXUS63 KBIS 052106
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
306 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A winter weather system will bring medium to high chances (50
  to 80 percent) for snow across northern and eastern parts of
  the state late tonight through Wednesday evening.

- There is a medium chance (30 to 60 percent) for at least 2
  inches of snow across north central North Dakota during this
  time, with a low chance (10 to 20 percent) for at least 4
  inches.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected for
  the rest of the work week, with a warmup favored for this
  weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

At the moment, an upper level shortwave trough and associated
surface low sits across South Dakota, quickly moving off to the
east. Some snow is lingering across south central North Dakota as
moisture wraps around the surface low, which is also expected to
quickly move east through the afternoon hours. Surface observations
occasionally drop down to a half mile in some locally heavier bands,
but these are generally short lived. Remaining accumulations with
this snow is expected to be minimal.

The rest of today will be mostly quiet, with mostly cloudy skies and
easterly winds. There are some low chances for snow across the
north, as some very weak forcing rides along the northwestern edge
of the aforementioned surface low, but given how weak the forcing
is, accumulations are expected to be minimal as well. Lows tonight
are forecast to be in the single digits north to the upper teens
south.

Later tonight and early tomorrow morning, our next low pressure
system will begin to track across the area. The upper level trough
is more pronounced than the trough that brought us the snow today,
however it is just as progressive, very quickly moving through the
area. The surface low with this system is expected to develop across
eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, quickly moving east before
being dragged northeast into Minnesota through Wednesday. Given the
progressive nature of this system, the associated precipitation
isn't expected to last for very long, helping reduce the snowfall
totals across the board. Models continue to trend slightly downward
in terms of accumulation, with the most recent NBM probabilities of
exceeding 4 inches maxing out at 10-20% across the far north
central. Probabilities of exceeding 2 inches have also decreased,
with this same area across the north central seeing a 30-60% chance.
This aligns with the recent ensemble runs that have this system
moving a bit quicker than previously expected. It is still expected
to snow across much of northern North Dakota (with chances ranging
from 50-80%), but overall totals continue to trend downward. Highs
on Wednesday will be mostly in the 20s, with the far southern James
River Valley potentially rising into the 40s. If precipitation were
to fall in this small area, it would likely be rain instead of snow.

Following this system, we are expected to head into a drier, warmer
pattern, as an upper level ridge across the western CONUS begins to
build east into the Plains. Through the weekend and into next week,
temperatures are expected to gradually increase each day, with highs
on Monday currently forecast to be in the 40s and 50s, with some
areas in the southwest potentially seeing lower 60s. However, these
temperatures are somewhat dependent on how much snow melts during
this period, particularly across the northern half of the state.
With ample sunlight, we could see sufficient snowmelt to reach these
temperatures in this area. If there is increased cloud coverage
during the day, we may not see as much snowmelt, which could weaken
these high temperatures slightly. Regardless of the outcome,
temperatures are expected to warm for the remainder of the forecast
period, with almost no precipitation expected underneath the strong
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

Currently, VFR conditions are present at KXWA and KDIK, with
MVFR conditions at KJMS, KMOT, and KBIS. Much of these reduced
conditions are expected to clear out over the next few hours, as
the associated lowered ceilings and reduced visibilities from
snow are anticipated to move east out of the area through the
afternoon. Mostly VFR conditions will prevail heading into the
overnight hours, before another low pressure system brings
another round of lowered ceilings, reduced visibilities, and
snow to nearly every TAF site. Snow is expected to begin at
roughly 06z, continuing into the end of the TAF period as the
system progresses to the east. Ceilings will drop to around 1 to
2 kft with this snow. Winds will generally be out of the east
at 10 to 15 kts for most of the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Besson