FXUS65 KBOI 052053
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
153 PM MST Tue Mar 5 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Current winter
weather and wind headlines remain intact with adjustments to
additional snowfall amounts through this evening. Latest radar
data depicts the west-east oriented band of snow has not moved
much this afternoon, but it will eventually get nudged southward
as a trough approaches from the north. Temperatures in the
lower valleys (including the Treasure Valley) have stayed above
32F which has limited the additional accumulations on the grassy
areas. Additional amounts of up to 2 inches are expected
through this evening, but with only minor impacts to the
evening commute. There is still a chance (less than 30 percent)
that the rain mixes with the snow in the lower valleys, but it
will more than likely remain as snow. Several more inches of
snowfall are expected in the higher elevations through this
evening. We have already received reports of 10-12 inches in
central Idaho, and up to 7 inches in portions of SE Oregon. Wind
gusts to 50 mph preceding the front across the southern areas
near the Nevada border will gradually subside this evening. The
precip intensity is expected to lessen this evening as the front
moves southward. Up to an inch is expected in the Western Magic
Valley overnight. Although the snow will end overnight, any
residual moisture will freeze and cause locally slick conditions
on untreated road surfaces. A drier northwest-northerly flow
aloft sets up over the region on Wednesday, although residual
moisture along the Nevada border near the exiting front could
bring additional light snowfall. The drier flow will persist
through Friday. Temperatures remain cold, averaging 10 degrees
below normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...An upper level ridge will
continue to build into the region through Saturday, bringing
dry and clear conditions for the beginning of the weekend. A
shortwave trough will move over the region on Saturday night
into Sunday, bringing widespread light precipitation. Snow
levels look to be around 3500-4500 feet for this system, with
higher terrain having the best chance for precipitation (30-50%
chance). Any precipitation the valleys see will likely be light
rain, but current chances are low (10-20% chance). Upper level
southwest flow will remain in place through Monday, with a break
in precipitation on Sunday night into Monday. More
precipitation is anticipated late Monday, mainly over higher
terrain, as a trough axis moves through the region. Tuesday will
remain unsettled, with lingering precipitation across the
region as northwest upper level flow builds in. Temperatures
look to be about 5-10 degrees below normal on Friday and
Saturday, but will climb to right around normal by Monday.

Widespread model agreement exists through Sunday with the upper
level flow pattern and light precipitation on Friday and
Saturday. Models begin to diverge by Monday, with differences in
the development of the upper level trough and the extent of the
precipitation over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread MVFR/IFR and local LIFR in
light/moderate snow. Snow will continue in a broad, west-east
band focused north of the KMUO/KREO line. Lower elevations below
4000 ft MSL should transition to rain/snow mix this afternoon,
then become all snow again Tuesday evening as the west-east
precip band moves towards the NV border. Snow will be mostly
south of the KMUO/KREO line after Wed./06z. Patchy fog and low
stratus will develop later tonight mainly near KBOI-KEUL and
KMYL and in valleys across the region. Mountains obscured.

Surface winds: NW-SW 5-15 kt with 30-40 kt gusts south of KBNO
and Snake Plain. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: SW-W 25-45 kt
shifting W 10- 25kt after Wed./18Z.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening
     IDZ011>014-033.
     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon IDZ015-030.
     Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening IDZ028-029.
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST /10 PM PST/ this
     evening ORZ063-064.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening ORZ061.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SA
AVIATION.....SA