FXUS63 KEAX 052015
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
215 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night through
  Friday...severe weather is not expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

Early this afternoon, persistent cloud cover has held temperatures
in the mid to upper 40s. Clouds should scatter this afternoon as
surface high pressure builds into the area. Highs, however, will be
tempered reaching the low to mid 50s. High pressure will remain
parked over the forecast area tonight into Wednesday morning. This
will allow lows to drop into the 30s tonight. Tomorrow afternoon the
surface ridge will shift east of the area and we will get a late day
return to modest WAA particularly over the western CWA this will
allow temperatures to rise into the mid 50s (northeastern CWA) to
the mid 60s (southwestern CWA). Wednesday night a upper level trough
will dig from the California into the southwestern CONUS. Ahead of
this system lead shortwaves will move through the region Wednesday
night into Thursday bringing the chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Thursday afternoon into Thursday night a strong lead
shortwave will move through the area as the upper level trough
ejects out into the central Plains. This will force a cold front
into the area. Limited instability will preclude severe weather
however, PWATs will be near 1.00" so, heavy rain will be possible.
Flooding is still not expected with antecedent conditions being very
dry. A last round of showers is expected on Friday into Friday night
as the upper level trough pushes through the region. Highs Thursday,
ahead of the front, will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Behind the
front on Friday highs will range from the upper 40s to near 60.

Conditions will dry out for the weekend however, behind this system
on Saturday, CAA will keep highs on the cool side only reaching the
upper 40s to lower 50s. High pressure is expected to build into the
area Saturday night which will allowing freezing temperatures to
affect the entire CWA with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Sunday,
height rises coupled with a return to modest WAA as high pressure
slides east of the area will allow highs to rise into the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Monday, upper level ridging building into the central
CONUS and strong WAA will drive temperatures into the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

MVFR cigs are expected to scatter out at the TAF site btn
20Z-21Z (except STJ which will sct right around the TAF valid
time). Otrw...expect VFR conds with bkn high clouds thru the
remainder of the TAF cycle. Winds will be out of the north
around 10kts to begin the TAF pd but will veer to the NE and
diminish to around 5kt aft 03Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73