FXUS63 KFGF 050037
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 30 percent chance for a dusting of light snow Tuesday morning
  in southeastern North Dakota, minimal impacts.

- 20 to 40 percent probabilities for minor winter impacts along
  and north of Highway 2 Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Mostly clear skies continue across the area, with no weather
impacts occurring. As the high pressure continues to slide
northward, winds will continue to diminish, making for a quiet
night. Fog is unlikely to develop due to the lack of moisture
within the current airmass.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

A bit of a break in the somewhat active southwesterly flow aloft
currently, with high pressure tonight bringing mostly clear
skies and below zero temps to the snow pack, although further
south with see increasing clouds and warmer values in the teens
above. A fairly vigorous shortwave lifts out of the Rockies
tonight and into SD that will be cause of the clouds, and that
shortwave will weaken and lift into MN during the day on MN. All
the CAMs have a fairly rapid weakening of precipitation as it
lifts from SD into ND late tonight into Tuesday morning, with
the surface low reflection of the wave washing out. Still, can't
rule out some light snow in southeastern ND, and a dusting could
be possible and create some isolated very minimal travel
impacts tomorrow morning. However, chances are only 30 percent.

Confidence is somewhat higher in a system coming in mid-week, as
an upper trough moves into ND from the Rockies on Wednesday then
off into Canada on Thursday. Fairly deep surface trough develops
over the Red River Valley and lifts off into ONT, although of
course the model solutions are highly variable in exact
placement. There are signs in some of the models of mesoscale
banding potential with synoptic forcing paired with some
moderate mid-level frontogenesis. Of course, too early to
determine exactly where heaviest snow amounts will end up.
Probabilities for at least an inch of snow are around 60 percent
for areas along and north of Highway 2 Wednesday into Thursday.
Chances for 4 inches or more are lower, around 10 to 40 percent
for that same area. There will also be some breezy winds and
blowing of falling snow, along with a low probability (less than
20 percent) of some mixed precipitation developing further
south by Thursday morning. Overall, there is a 20 to 40 percent
chance for minor winter impacts mainly along and north of the
Highway 2 corridor, so will have to keep an eye on the system as
we go forward.

Friday through Monday...Less active as the main upper trough
moves off to the east and then ridging builds in for the later
half of the weekend. Temps warming back up to above average in
the blend, but the spread in the ensembles is pretty high.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Very limited aviation impacts are expected for the TAF period.
VFR conditions will continue with diminishing winds overnight
tonight to light and variable. The only aviation impact in the
forecast is at FAR, with the potential for -SN to arise tomorrow
morning. There is the potential for this not to arise, but there
wasn't much of a change in confidence to necessitate removing it
from the TAF. Elsewhere, no precipitation impacts are expected.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Perroux