FXUS63 KFGF 050407
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1007 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 30 percent chance for a dusting of light snow Tuesday morning
  in southeastern North Dakota, minimal impacts.

- 20 to 40 percent probabilities for minor winter impacts along
  and north of Highway 2 Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Mostly clear skies continue with no weather impacts. An SPS was
issued along our border in the James River Valley for the
potential of accumulating snowfall between 4-6 inches in
isolated areas. At this time, the bulk of that looks to stay
west of the James River, so accumulating snow forecasts for our
area have not changed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

A bit of a break in the somewhat active southwesterly flow aloft
currently, with high pressure tonight bringing mostly clear
skies and below zero temps to the snow pack, although further
south with see increasing clouds and warmer values in the teens
above. A fairly vigorous shortwave lifts out of the Rockies
tonight and into SD that will be cause of the clouds, and that
shortwave will weaken and lift into MN during the day on MN. All
the CAMs have a fairly rapid weakening of precipitation as it
lifts from SD into ND late tonight into Tuesday morning, with
the surface low reflection of the wave washing out. Still, can't
rule out some light snow in southeastern ND, and a dusting could
be possible and create some isolated very minimal travel
impacts tomorrow morning. However, chances are only 30 percent.

Confidence is somewhat higher in a system coming in mid-week, as
an upper trough moves into ND from the Rockies on Wednesday then
off into Canada on Thursday. Fairly deep surface trough develops
over the Red River Valley and lifts off into ONT, although of
course the model solutions are highly variable in exact
placement. There are signs in some of the models of mesoscale
banding potential with synoptic forcing paired with some
moderate mid-level frontogenesis. Of course, too early to
determine exactly where heaviest snow amounts will end up.
Probabilities for at least an inch of snow are around 60 percent
for areas along and north of Highway 2 Wednesday into Thursday.
Chances for 4 inches or more are lower, around 10 to 40 percent
for that same area. There will also be some breezy winds and
blowing of falling snow, along with a low probability (less than
20 percent) of some mixed precipitation developing further
south by Thursday morning. Overall, there is a 20 to 40 percent
chance for minor winter impacts mainly along and north of the
Highway 2 corridor, so will have to keep an eye on the system as
we go forward.

Friday through Monday...Less active as the main upper trough
moves off to the east and then ridging builds in for the later
half of the weekend. Temps warming back up to above average in
the blend, but the spread in the ensembles is pretty high.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1007 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Low aviation impacts will continue for the TAF period. Cigs will
remain VFR through the entire TAF period, with lowering cigs to
050-060. Snow may impact FAR between 12z and 18z tomorrow
morning, but impacts should only cause visibility to fall to
MVFR. There is a very low chance for it to fall to IFR, but this
would need heavier snowfall rates to occur. Regardless, this
will be a very short duration of MVFR to IFR conditions should
it arise.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Perroux