FXUS63 KFGF 051130 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 530 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow could impact portions of southeastern North Dakota today, primarily south of Highway 200 and west of the Red River. - Impacts to travel are possible Wednesday and early Thursday. There is a 60 percent chance for 2 or more inches of snow for areas along and north of Highway 2, and an 80 percent chance for areas along the International Border. Chance for advisory impacts is 60 percent. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 West to southwest flow continues across the Northern Plains today into Wednesday, with a thermal gradient stretched from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Shortwave activity along this gradient will facilitate the development of H7 low pressure today, bringing a chance for light snow across portions of North Dakota. Most guidance maintains an open wave; however, Fgen potential looks relatively strong along a theta-e gradient boundary that lifts northeastward starting around midday. Snowfall rates could briefly reach upwards of 0.5" to 1" per hour, but with a short duration. Accumulation potential looks to remain at or below 1 inch, with only a 30 percent chance of exceeding 1 inch of snow. Snowfall potential to the south and west of Valley city is a bit higher, with isolated totals possibly exceeding 2 inches. Heading into Wednesday, another H7 trough forms along the thermal gradient, with this one being somewhat stronger. Several CAMs close the low at the 700mb level, with a reflective wave well above 500mb. A much larger axis of Fgen will be evident in the 925mb to 700mb layer, which will bring another chance for higher snowfall rates with relatively strong forcing. Currently, the best chance for heavy snow resides along the International Border, and especially the northern portions of the Red River Valley. The probability of seeing 2 inches or more snow is 60 percent along and north of Highway 2, with that probability being maximized in the northern Valley at 80 percent. The track of the low will ultimately determine the exact location of the heaviest snow, but it is worth noting that heavy snow is indicated in nearly every scenario, just in slightly different locations. Winds with the system have the potential to gust upwards of 30 mph, thus blowing snow and reduced visibility is possible. For southern portions of the Red River Valley and into west-central Minnesota, snowfall accumulation potential looks to be lower as rain mixes in with snow in association with warmer temperatures. Later this week, impact potential is minimal as zonal flow prevails across the Northern Plains through Saturday, with ridging developing in the western CONUS late this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 VFR conditions prevail through much of the period at all TAF sites. Look for a chance of light snow this morning at KFAR, with otherwise increasing cloud cover through the day at all sites. Winds gradually shift to the east to southeast through the day, generally remaining less than 10 knots through late this evening. A low pressure system brings better chances for snow across the area Wednesday morning, along with an increase in wind speeds. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...Lynch