FXUS63 KFGF 051559
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
959 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow could impact portions of southeastern North Dakota
  today, primarily south of Highway 200 and west of the Red
  River.

- Impacts to travel are possible Wednesday and early Thursday.
  There is a 60 percent chance for 2 or more inches of snow for
  areas along and north of Highway 2, and an 80 percent chance
  for areas along the International Border. Chance for advisory
  impacts is 60 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

Increased POPs across our southeastern ND counties as light snow
has brought visibility down to 1 1/2 miles or so at Oakes and
Gwinner. Web cams show a light amount of snow so far, around
half an inch or so, so amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch continue to seem
reasonable. SPS and graphic cast outlining minor travel impact
continue to seem the best way to handle this shortwave at it
still seems like it will weaken as it moves northeastward
throughout the day.

UPDATE...
Issued at 600 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

Snow now beginning to show up on radar and obs across southern
North Dakota and northeastern South Dakota. This will gradually
continue northward this morning, with potentially high snowfall
rates. The duration of snow is expected to be short, but could
bring sharply reduced visibility during periods of heavy snow.
Accumulation potential still looks to be minimal, generally
around 1 inch or less for Barnes, Ransom, and Sargent Counties.
Higher snowfall totals are expected further west, along and
south of I-94.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

West to southwest flow continues across the Northern Plains today
into Wednesday, with a thermal gradient stretched from the Central
Plains into the Upper Midwest. Shortwave activity along this
gradient will facilitate the development of H7 low pressure today,
bringing a chance for light snow across portions of North Dakota.
Most guidance maintains an open wave; however, Fgen potential
looks relatively strong along a theta-e gradient boundary that
lifts northeastward starting around midday. Snowfall rates could
briefly reach upwards of 0.5" to 1" per hour, but with a short
duration. Accumulation potential looks to remain at or below 1
inch, with only a 30 percent chance of exceeding 1 inch of snow.
Snowfall potential to the south and west of Valley city is a
bit higher, with isolated totals possibly exceeding 2 inches.

Heading into Wednesday, another H7 trough forms along the thermal
gradient, with this one being somewhat stronger. Several CAMs close
the low at the 700mb level, with a reflective wave well above 500mb.
A much larger axis of Fgen will be evident in the 925mb to
700mb layer, which will bring another chance for higher snowfall
rates with relatively strong forcing. Currently, the best
chance for heavy snow resides along the International Border,
and especially the northern portions of the Red River Valley.
The probability of seeing 2 inches or more snow is 60 percent
along and north of Highway 2, with that probability being
maximized in the northern Valley at 80 percent. The track of the
low will ultimately determine the exact location of the
heaviest snow, but it is worth noting that heavy snow is
indicated in nearly every scenario, just in slightly different
locations. Winds with the system have the potential to gust
upwards of 30 mph, thus blowing snow and reduced visibility is
possible. For southern portions of the Red River Valley and into
west-central Minnesota, snowfall accumulation potential looks
to be lower as rain mixes in with snow in association with
warmer temperatures.


Later this week, impact potential is minimal as zonal flow prevails
across the Northern Plains through Saturday, with ridging developing
in the western CONUS late this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024

VFR conditions prevail through much of the period at all TAF
sites. Look for a chance of light snow this morning at KFAR,
with otherwise increasing cloud cover through the day at all
sites. Winds gradually shift to the east to southeast through
the day, generally remaining less than 10 knots through late
this evening. A low pressure system brings better chances for
snow across the area Wednesday morning, along with an increase
in wind speeds.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Lynch