FXUS63 KFGF 052115 CCA AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 314 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Band of snow moving north across the central Red River Valley has dropped a quick inch or so of snow in spots, but is starting to weaken and will continue to bring only fairly minor travel impacts this evening. - There is an 80 percent chance of 2 inches or more of snow along with some patchy blowing snow near the international border Wednesday into Wednesday night. Winter weather advisory out for our northern tier of counties along with Walsh and Marshall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 Fairly vigorous shortwave trough continues to lift through northeastern SD and on the leading edge of some decent 925mb warm air advection has produced a narrow band of snow. This snow band continues to move across the central Red River Valley, and had dropped a quick inch to inch and a half of snow in the Fargo area. There has been a slight weakening trend since the band has lifted north of Fargo, but given the over performance of this system will lean more towards the more aggressive CAMs and bump up POPs and the chances for half an inch to an inch of snow before the band fizzles completely this evening. The shortwave quickly moves off into ONT tonight, with the next surface low starting to redevelop over eastern SD ahead of the main trough coming into from the Rockies tomorrow. Ahead of that system, there could be some brief clear skies in a few spots so portions of our northern counties could drop down into the single digits above zero, while the cloudier south stays in the 20s. The main low comes out into the CWA during the day tomorrow, with the ensemble members coming into better alignment with the main precipitation shield across our northern counties, and cold front trailing further south along the Red River Valley. Temperatures will be cold enough across the north to be mainly snow, although some areas on the MN side near the Highway 2 corridor have some higher probabilities of seeing rain mixing in thanks to the timing of the system. Probabilities of freezing rain are around zero from the NBM and HREF, so think our type will be a mix of rain and snow. Probabilities of over 2 inches of snow accumulation near the international border are 80 percent or more, and there will be at least some patchy blowing snow as the cold front comes through. The pWSSI is in the 50 to 70 percent range for minor impacts, again mainly along the international border. With fairly high confidence for snow along the border, went ahead with a winter weather advisory for the our northern tier of counties along with Walsh and Marshall. The upper low pulls off into Ontario and quiet but colder conditions for the end of the work week as surface high pressure builds behind the cold front. Warming trend for the weekend into the early part of next week as upper flow turns from northwesterly to southwesterly. Box and whisker plots are pretty spread out, with exactly how much we warm depending on the exact placement of the ridge axis. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 Band of snow lifting towards KFAR could limit visibility down to the 1-3SM range, with ceilings down to 3500 or so. Still thinking there will be decreasing intensity with the system as it moves northeast, so confidence in the snow reaching the other TAF sites is not high. Conditions should return to VFR by this evening as the first weak system fizzles out and before the next one comes in, with mid and high clouds and easterly winds over the forecast area. Winds will increase out of the southeast late in the period and snow chances will increase at least at some of the airports. The best chances for 1 mile visibility and MVFR ceilings will be at KDVL by Wednesday morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight CST Wednesday night for NDZ006>008-016-054. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday for MNZ004>008. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JR