FXUS66 KHNX 051034
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
234 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024


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.KEY MESSAGES...

1.A weak system is expected to impact Southern California and
the Southern portions of the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County
mountains on Wednesday into Thursday.

2.A drying and warming trend is expected for the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The current pattern of zonal flow over California is expected to
be interrupted by a low pressure trough that will move in from
the Pacific by Wednesday morning. This will bring light
precipitation mostly south of Fresno, along with light snow to
the high elevations of the Sierra Nevada and light rain along
the Coastal Range. Here are the probabilities for select valley
locations seeing a tenth of an inch of rain or more from
Wednesday morning through Thursday morning:

Bakersfield: 46%	Delano: 36%
Porterville: 31%	Hanford: 26%
Lemoore: 21%		Reedley: 21%
Visalia: 21%		Fresno: 16%
Madera: 16%			Merced: 11%

This system will move out of the area by Friday morning and
ridge-building is expected to come in by Friday afternoon. This
will lead to a warming trend that will go through the weekend,
with temperatures in the valley rising to the high 60's and
possibly into the low 70's. The area north of Fresno has a
20-35% chance of a high of 70 on Saturday, while the area south
of Fresno has a 40-55% chance.

Medium range models for the 500 mb heights show a series of
short troughs passing over California beginning on Sunday,
leading to a bit of a temperature roller coaster as each one
goes over the area. There is also the slight chance of
precipitation (10-25% for at each 0.01 inches) next Tuesday as
one of these trough digs a bit farther south. Then long range
ensemble models are beginning to show another warming trend,
lasting longer than the upcoming one this weekend, with the
Climate Prediction Center putting Central California under a
33-40% chance for above normal temperatures.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  03/04/2024 14:10
EXPIRES: 03/05/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...EW
IDSS/PIO.......................VJP


weather.gov/hanford