FXUS62 KILM 050248 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 948 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will pull away to the north tonight. High pressure will bring dry weather Tuesday before the next storm system brings moderate rain from Tuesday night through Wednesday. Dry conditions on Thursday and Friday will be followed by rain for Friday night and Saturday as the next storm system affects the area. && .UPDATE... No big changes were made with the latest update. Main concern remains the risk for fog, which could become dense, especially in SC where less cloud cover/wind is expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Conditions across the region resemble a more Spring-like day with scattered cumulus west of Cape Fear amidst temperatures in the low- mid 70s while mostly cloudy skies and upper 60s to low 70s are found in the Cape Fear region southwest of a surface low. These temperatures are running 5-10F above normal highs for early March. Expect mostly cloudy skies to continue over Cape Fear through the remainder of the day, limiting heating during the warmest part of the day. However, as the low pulls increasingly further away, expect cloud cover to dissipate as subsidence comes into play and dries out the column. Meanwhile, the cumulus field will collapse with the loss of daytime heating, leaving a mainly clear night. Given abundant soil moisture from recent rainfall and a weak pressure gradient behind the low, expect fog development to take place overnight across most or all of the region. How dense the fog gets remains a question, but the potential exists for visibilities to drop to 1 mile or less at the tail-end of the night. The biggest question relates to how quickly cloud cover dissipates over Cape Fear, which will determine how much time for radiational cooling will exist and this plays into how dense fog may get. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the upper 40s to around 50F, which is around 5-10F above normal. After morning mist/fog burns off, a mostly sunny day is expected with mid-level ridging and weak surface high pressure in control for Tuesday. But this will be temporary as another shortwave and associated surface reflection approaches near the end of the period, causing clouds to increase during the afternoon and evening. Nevertheless, highs in the low-mid 70s are expected with winds swinging from NW through northerly to easterly as the surface high passes to our north and offshore. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave ejects out of the Gulf and moves northeastward through the Carolinas, which creates quite the rainy period in the short term forecast. Rain chances quickly increase Tuesday night from the southwest to the northeast, with lows only bottoming out in the mid 50s. Associated surface low starts to mature as it moves through the Carolinas Wednesday, but guidance is struggling with the track of this low. That plays a role in determining exactly how much rain we'll see. Generally looking at 1.0-1.5 inches of rain this period. If the low tracks a bit closer to the coast, those rainfall totals may escalate a bit, but I don't know how likely this is. Dynamics seem to favor more of an inland track. Highs Wednesday near 70. Aforementioned surface low moves up the mid-Atlantic and offshore Wednesday night, pulling the rain chances along with it. Mid-level dry air deepens, and starts sneaking into the low-levels. Lows in the lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Brief and modest ridging comes into play Thursday into Friday, bringing a dry forecast and a little more sunshine than what we've seen recently. Highs Thursday in the low-to-mid 70s, lows that night in the lower 50s. Potent frontal system still looks slated to move through the area Friday night through Saturday. Another decent dose of rainfall expected, with perhaps a few scattered thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. This front pushes offshore Saturday night, bringing a dry forecast for Sunday and Monday. Highs in the lower 70s Friday and Saturday, with lows each night in the mid 50s. After the cold front passes through, slightly cooler temperatures are expected for Sunday and Monday...highs in the mid-to-upper 60s, lows in the lower 40s. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low to moderate confidence through 15Z Tuesday, then high confidence through most of the rest of the period. Lingering clouds/sprinkles in NC will diminish this evening as low pressure moves farther away from the area. Diminishing clouds/winds for most of the area will lead to good radiational cooling conditions and this will likely promote some fog development, especially in SC. The fog could become dense, especially at KFLO/KMYR, although given some uncertainty we opted to go no worse than IFR for the 00Z TAFs. The mist/fog and/or low clouds should dissipate by 15Z with dry high pressure keeping it VFR the rest of the period, although there is a very low risk of additional restrictions from low clouds and/or fog toward the end of the period at KCRE/KMYR as more sea fog may develop and try to push inland due to the onshore winds. Extended Outlook...Restrictions from low clouds/fog are likely during late night and early mornings through Friday morning. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night with vis/cig restrictions likely. VFR is expected for Thursday and Friday after morning mist burns off. Another storm system will bring extensive rain from Friday night through Saturday, likely causing vis/cig restrictions again. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday... As low pressure pulls away to the north, low- level flow will gradually back to NW and weaken as the pressure gradient weakens. Weak high pressure pushes by to our north during Tuesday, with winds veering through north and settling on east by Tuesday afternoon. Seas will remain a steady 2-4 ft through the period, driven mainly by easterly 9-10 sec swells. Tuesday Night through Saturday...Easterly winds start veering to the south and pick up in speed ahead of the next frontal system. Gusts up to 20kts possible Wednesday, and seas look to hit Small Craft Advisory thresholds. After this system moves off to the northeast Wednesday night, winds go westerly at 5-10kts by Thursday morning, and seas come back down to 3-4ft. Varying wind direction by Thursday night, before coming more ENE by Friday. Winds and seas pick up again ahead of a potent frontal system, which brings gusts out of the south to southwest at 25kts. Seas again escalate to near 6ft, meaning a Small Craft Advisory might be possible again by Saturday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...RJB MARINE...IGB/ABW