FXUS62 KILM 050536 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1236 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will pull away to the north tonight. High pressure will bring dry weather Tuesday before the next storm system brings moderate rain from Tuesday night through Wednesday. Dry conditions on Thursday and Friday will be followed by rain for Friday night and Saturday as the next storm system affects the area. && .UPDATE... No big changes were made with the latest update. Main concern remains the risk for fog, which could become dense, especially in SC where less cloud cover/wind is expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Conditions across the region resemble a more Spring-like day with scattered cumulus west of Cape Fear amidst temperatures in the low- mid 70s while mostly cloudy skies and upper 60s to low 70s are found in the Cape Fear region southwest of a surface low. These temperatures are running 5-10F above normal highs for early March. Expect mostly cloudy skies to continue over Cape Fear through the remainder of the day, limiting heating during the warmest part of the day. However, as the low pulls increasingly further away, expect cloud cover to dissipate as subsidence comes into play and dries out the column. Meanwhile, the cumulus field will collapse with the loss of daytime heating, leaving a mainly clear night. Given abundant soil moisture from recent rainfall and a weak pressure gradient behind the low, expect fog development to take place overnight across most or all of the region. How dense the fog gets remains a question, but the potential exists for visibilities to drop to 1 mile or less at the tail-end of the night. The biggest question relates to how quickly cloud cover dissipates over Cape Fear, which will determine how much time for radiational cooling will exist and this plays into how dense fog may get. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the upper 40s to around 50F, which is around 5-10F above normal. After morning mist/fog burns off, a mostly sunny day is expected with mid-level ridging and weak surface high pressure in control for Tuesday. But this will be temporary as another shortwave and associated surface reflection approaches near the end of the period, causing clouds to increase during the afternoon and evening. Nevertheless, highs in the low-mid 70s are expected with winds swinging from NW through northerly to easterly as the surface high passes to our north and offshore. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave ejects out of the Gulf and moves northeastward through the Carolinas, which creates quite the rainy period in the short term forecast. Rain chances quickly increase Tuesday night from the southwest to the northeast, with lows only bottoming out in the mid 50s. Associated surface low starts to mature as it moves through the Carolinas Wednesday, but guidance is struggling with the track of this low. That plays a role in determining exactly how much rain we'll see. Generally looking at 1.0-1.5 inches of rain this period. If the low tracks a bit closer to the coast, those rainfall totals may escalate a bit, but I don't know how likely this is. Dynamics seem to favor more of an inland track. Highs Wednesday near 70. Aforementioned surface low moves up the mid-Atlantic and offshore Wednesday night, pulling the rain chances along with it. Mid-level dry air deepens, and starts sneaking into the low-levels. Lows in the lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Brief and modest ridging comes into play Thursday into Friday, bringing a dry forecast and a little more sunshine than what we've seen recently. Highs Thursday in the low-to-mid 70s, lows that night in the lower 50s. Potent frontal system still looks slated to move through the area Friday night through Saturday. Another decent dose of rainfall expected, with perhaps a few scattered thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. This front pushes offshore Saturday night, bringing a dry forecast for Sunday and Monday. Highs in the lower 70s Friday and Saturday, with lows each night in the mid 50s. After the cold front passes through, slightly cooler temperatures are expected for Sunday and Monday...highs in the mid-to-upper 60s, lows in the lower 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low clouds swirling around low pressure to our north continues to cover the ILM airport, but linear extrapolation of the back edge of the the clouds on satellite suggest clearing may arrive between 07-08z. The remainder of the area is clear to mostly clear with just scattered stratocumulus around 4000 feet AGL. High humidity and light winds could cause the development of fog at most airports after 09-10z. I've included this potential as a TEMPO forecast group given only low confidence at this time. MOS guidance data is less bullish with low visibility than basic pattern recognition would suggest, which is not helping confidence. Regardless, conditions should become VFR after 13z with light surface winds and slowly increasing high clouds throughout the day. Extended Outlook...MVFR ceilings are likely after 06z Wednesday, perhaps lowering to IFR for both ceilings and visibility after 12z Wednesday as a low pressure system spreads widespread rain across the area. Another storm system should bring rain Friday night through Saturday, likely bringing additional IFR conditions in ceilings and possibly visibility. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday... As low pressure pulls away to the north, low- level flow will gradually back to NW and weaken as the pressure gradient weakens. Weak high pressure pushes by to our north during Tuesday, with winds veering through north and settling on east by Tuesday afternoon. Seas will remain a steady 2-4 ft through the period, driven mainly by easterly 9-10 sec swells. Tuesday Night through Saturday...Easterly winds start veering to the south and pick up in speed ahead of the next frontal system. Gusts up to 20kts possible Wednesday, and seas look to hit Small Craft Advisory thresholds. After this system moves off to the northeast Wednesday night, winds go westerly at 5-10kts by Thursday morning, and seas come back down to 3-4ft. Varying wind direction by Thursday night, before coming more ENE by Friday. Winds and seas pick up again ahead of a potent frontal system, which brings gusts out of the south to southwest at 25kts. Seas again escalate to near 6ft, meaning a Small Craft Advisory might be possible again by Saturday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...TRA MARINE...IGB/ABW