FXUS62 KILM 051453 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 953 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry today with a return of sunshine. Clouds return this evening and overnight ahead of the next system that brings rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. The next round of rain arrives Friday night into Saturday. && .UPDATE... No major changes to the ongoing forecast with this update. Sunny skies this morning will see increasing high cirrus through midday with increasing thickness to the high clouds this afternoon. High temps will be modulated by how rapidly the thicker high clouds spread in, but have maintained the above- normal forecast of middle 70s away from the immediate coast given the expectation of mostly uninterrupted sunshine into the early afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure has moved over eastern Virginia and should continue to lift northeastward and away from the Carolinas. The back edge of the swirl of low clouds associated with low should move out of southeastern North Carolina by daybreak, leaving skies mostly sunny for the morning hours. Increasing cirrus will overspread the area this afternoon ahead of the next synoptic low already beginning to take shape across Louisiana. Given yesterday's considerable cold bias I had with high temperatures, I'm boosting forecast highs to near the upper edge of the guidance ensembles with mid 70s expected for all locations away from the beaches where a weak seabreeze should hold those locations 65-70 degrees. The stream of Gulf moisture will deepen with time tonight with skies becoming completely overcast by midnight across the Pee Dee region. Models have slowed a bit with their depiction of a shield of rain with some embedded heavier showery elements arriving from the southwest. By sunrise on Wednesday I still expect rain to cover the Pee Dee region, but it may not reach the Cape Fear area until after sunrise. Due to increasing clouds forecast lows are in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A rather disorganized shortwave will be pushing low pressure northeastward through the area on Wednesday. Whatever light isentropic rain that may still be around first thing will give way to some more dynamically forced showers of moderate intensity and about categorical-worthy coverage. Lapse rates still don't look so great for thunder but the 'isolated' modifier for convection still hard to argue with especially for areas east of the surface low. PW values will range from 1.3-1.5" according to most guidance but given the moderate strength of the forcing QPF prospects are close to half of these values, most of which should fall by midday. Deep layer moisture will be offshore by afternoon but lingering low level moisture paired with a few vorticity centers traversing the area call for lower POPs to continue. The main trough axis swings through around midnight after which time the rain should shut off completely. The mid level flow in place on Thursday will bring a fair amount of sunshine as PW values drop to 0.75". && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Guidance continues to slow a bit with the progression of the next system late in the week and given the mid level ridge off of most of the East Coast this seems perfectly plausible. As such Friday now appears to be rain-free during the daytime hours. POPs will then increase Friday night. Trajectories out of the Gulf and less so, the Bahamas should favor a very high chance for rain and perhaps some appreciable QPF, the latter slightly limited by a good eastward progression of the system in the low levels. Saturday will also be quite breezy, with some good gusts possible in pockets of moderate rain due to downward momentum transfer. Cool and dry advection in the wake of Saturday's system keep the area dry Sunday and knock temperatures down to climo if not a bit below with some very minor recovery possible as early as Monday. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A combination of fog and patchy low clouds are plaguing some area airports this morning. VFR conditions are alternating with IFR, particularly at KCRE, KFLO, and KLBT. A bank of low clouds near with bases near 1000 feet AGL is sitting just a few miles north of KILM and has a low potential to affect the airport directly before dissipating after 13-14z. The threat posed by all these features will decrease sharply as the sun heats the boundary layer and improves visibility. VFR conditions should then persist through at least 08z Wednesday before ceilings fall to or below 1000 feet AGL in advance of a Gulf coast storm system approaching from the southwest. Extended Outlook...IFR ceilings appear likely after 12z Wednesday as a low pressure system spreads widespread rain across the area. Ceiling and visibility restrictions may not clear until Thursday morning after sunrise. Another storm system should bring rain Friday night through Saturday, likely creating additional IFR conditions in ceilings and possibly visibility. && .MARINE... Near Term (Through Tonight)... Weather conditions should be almost ideal on the coastal waters today. Low pressure has shifted north across eastern Virginia and a weak ridge of high pressure will cover the coastal Carolinas. This supports a forecast of light winds through this evening. Wind directions should initially be offshore this morning, but will turn onshore around noon as the high moves overhead and a weak seabreeze develops. Attention will then shift to low pressure developing along the Gulf Coast that will spread clouds across the area tonight with rain becoming possible late. Seas ranging from 2-4 feet in a 10 second east-southeast swell will only begin to build higher late tonight due to increasing southeast wind. Wednesday through Saturday...An approaching cold front and upper disturbance will bring increased winds and seas Wednesday, the latter ramping up to advisory levels. Visibility-limiting rain and sea fog also appear to further worsen conditions. The veering winds associated with the approaching cold front appear to divert the swell energy that had been reaching the area up til Wednesday just outside of the forecast zones and then further offshore following FROPA later Wednesday. Much lighter and veering winds Thursday should allow headlines to drop. Flow turns back to southerly on Friday as the next system gears up to approach from the west. This system will have good support aloft and so have enough of a surface reflection along the front to ramp either winds or seas back to advisory levels Friday night or Saturday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...ABW NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...TRA MARINE...ILM