FXUS62 KILM 052057
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
357 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lose influence through this evening and
tonight as the next storm system approaches. This will increase
rain chances for tonight into Wed evening. Weak high pressure
returns for Thu into Fri before the next round of rain arrives
Fri night into Sat evening. Cold front to sweep across the area
and offshore early Sun followed by dry and strong high pressure
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure and mid-level ridging will give way to
an approaching mid-level shortwave and associated surface low
tonight into tomorrow. Increasing high cloudiness this evening
will be followed by lowering and thickening clouds tonight.
Isentropic ascent over a shallow cool wedge will drive a
generally steady rain into the region from the southwest tonight
while a coastal trough and warm Gulf Stream waters send showers
and isolated thunderstorms into the coastal areas from the
south-southeast. Steady rain will lift across the area during
the morning hours ahead of a warm front, with the highest totals
expected across inland areas near and west of I-95. Some
streaks of heavier rain may occur across the coastal counties
where elevated convective elements can persist above the shallow
stable air. Some heavier showers and perhaps some thunder may
accompany the warm frontal passage, especially near the coast.
As the warm front lifts through, winds will turn from
southeasterly to south-southwesterly and rain will shift away to
the north. Wednesday afternoon looks to be mostly dry with
partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies persisting and isolated to
perhaps widely scattered showers developing along an approaching
cold front. This front should push through during the evening
hours with winds turning northwesterly behind it.

Overnight temperatures will not vary much after their initial
cooldown this evening. As onshore flow increases, rising
dewpoints should nudge temperatures up towards daybreak. After
a cloudy and rainy morning within a shallow low-level wedge,
high temperatures will depend on how much sunshine makes it
through the clouds Wednesday afternoon. Highs are expected to
reach around 70F or so, but this could be a little underdone if
skies clear more than expected or too high if skies remain solid
overcast through the afternoon. However, the typical tendency
behind warm fronts is for more clearing than modeled, so high
temps may need to be nudged upward in future updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Approaching mid-level s/w trof and associated sfc low, will push
east across the area Wed night. Residual light pcpn, especially
the ILM NC CWA should lift N-NE of the area around midnight,
leaving low stratus clouds that should prevail into daylight
Thu, slowly receding from S to N. Cannot rule out areas of fog
early Thu morning as winds don't really pick up until after
daybreak Thu. As the sfc low exits followed by its CFP, the sfc
pg does tighten-some which will result in active NW to N winds
by daylight Thu. Wed night lows will occur in the vicinity of
daybreak Thu. How long the low clouds prevail Thu will determine
max temps, at this point have adjusted highs a degree or 2
lower from the previous fcst based on latest and various MOS
guidance. In between rain producing systems Thu aftn and night
as zonal flow or a low amplitude upper ridge prevails. Expect
periodic upper level moisture moving overhead Thu aftn and
night. Sfc ridging from the north becomes better established
across the FA latter half of THu as the low off New England
intensifies. Looking at calm winds to start Thu evening,
followed by increasing NE-E winds overnight. Temps will likely
drop quickly early Thu evening then slowly drop or hold steady
once the winds increase, especially at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The low amplified upper ridge to slowly move off the East Coast
Fri into Sat, allowing sfc ridging from the north to slowly
weaken across the area. This will help hold off pcpn chances
til Fri night. However, have adjusted Fri max temps lower by up
to a category based on continued sfc ridging from the NE and
more upper followed by mid-level clouds Fri into Fri night.
Southern stream impulse and avbl moisture, ie. isentropic lift,
will overspread the area and persist into early Sat evening,
becoming patchy in coverage there-after as the main dynamics
lift NE-E of the FA. Have gone likely to categorical at times
with this pcpn and could see QPF in excess of 0.5 inches. Have
also included isolated thunder during Sat in the vicinity and
wake of the WFP. The cold front associated with the sfc low
moving across the Eastern Great Lakes and New England, will push
across the FA late Sat night thru Sun morning. This aided by a
progressive pos tilted upper trof that will track across the
area Sun and well offshore Sun night. Much improved conditions
slated for Sun/Sun night with CAA and decreasing clouds but
breezy NW to N winds as the sfc pg tightens in the wake of the
CFP. Looking at dry conditions and mainly clear skies thru early
next week as NW flow aloft prevails. Temps late Fri thru Sat
will depend on the exploits of the warm frontal passage.
Otherwise, temps Sun thru Tue will run at or slightly below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of today and
into the first half of tonight as clouds lower/thicken and
precipitation approaches from the southwest and southeast.
Showers begin spreading in from the southeast with more steady
rain spreading in from the southwest after midnight while
ceilings quickly lower through MVFR to the IFR-LIFR range before
sunrise. Visibilities also fall as rain intensity increases and
sea mist/fog spreads into the coastal terminals due to
increasing dewpoints moving over the chilly shelf waters. A
warm front should lift through around or just beyond the end of
the 18Z TAF period, behind which rain coverage will decrease,
visibilities will increase, and ceilings should lift at least
out of LIFR territory.

Extended Outlook...MVFR to IFR ceilings appear likely to
persist into Wednesday night with MVFR to IFR fog possible due
to light winds and excess low-level moisture. High pressure
building in on Thursday will bring improving conditions which
should return to VFR by noon and continue through Friday.
Another storm system will bring rain Friday night through
Saturday, with additional ceiling and visibility restrictions
likely. High pressure should bring a return to VFR on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...

Through Wednesday...
Steady easterly flow at or below 10 kts will continue through
tonight as a warm front approaches from the southwest. This
front will drive scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the waters tonight into tomorrow morning
while seas stay generally in the 2-4 ft range, primarily due to
an ESErly swell with a period of 10 sec. Strengthening flow will
result in seas building to 4-6 feet by Wednesday afternoon (6
footers primarily in NC waters) with southeast winds turning
southerly behind the front around midday. While wind gusts are
expected to stay below SCA criteria, seas reaching 6 ft are
expected to impact the NC waters during the afternoon and into
Wednesday night. In addition to 2-3 ft easterly swells with an
11 sec period, southeast to southerly 4-6 ft wind waves with a
period of 7-8 sec are expected on Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Sunday Night...
Progressive wx pattern this period with periodic wind shifts
associated with various frontal passage types. SCA conditions
ongoing across the NC Waters only at the start of this period,
mainly for 8 second period SE waves. The pcpn will be offshore
at the start of this period. But may be dealing with leftover
isolated showers Wed evening with sea fog issues possibly
lingering until an offshore wind direction change, ie CFP, with
an influx of lower dewpoints. The offshore winds will help lower
seas late Wed night into Thu, with seas dropping below SCA
thresholds by daybreak Thu. After a brief NW to N surge early
Thu, the sfc pg briefly relaxes. Models than take sfc high to
our north and wedge it across the Carolinas later Thu night thru
Fri night. Look for an extended period of NE-E winds and
building seas that should reach SCA thresholds Sat as a WFP
occurs late Sat allows the gradient to tighten additionally,
which may lead to possible SCA conditions. CFP slated early Sun
followed by decent sfc pg tightening with CAA. SCA thresholds
possibly continuing into late Sun. With the changing wind
directions, seas will be dominated by wind waves for the most
part.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...DCH/ABW