FXUS66 KMFR 052214 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 214 PM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 .DISCUSSION...Radar trends are showing precipitation gradually diminishing from northwest to southeast, with not much happening in Douglas County. Therefore the Winter Storm Warning were cancelled. High res guidance are all in pretty good agreement showing precipitation gradually shifting south through this evening. However, were expecting precipitation to continue through tonight in the southern half of Klamath and Lake County, and into Wednesday morning in eastern Siskiyou and all of Modoc County as moisture continues to fed in ahead of an upper low centered near 36W/132W. Precipitation will linger through this evening in Western Siskiyou county, then diminish and end overnight tonight. Due to the above mentioned, A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued once the current Winter Storm Warnings end at 4 pm pst for portions of Northern California and southern Klamath and Lake County. Please see WSWMFR for more details. Meanwhile a colder and drier air mass will push in from the north as the moisture continues to move southeast later this evening and tonight. Dewpoints are forecasted to drop into the low 30s this evening and tonight, with clearing resulting in overnight lows dropping near and below freezing for the coastal counties and a Freeze Warning has been issued. Please see NPWMFR for more details. The Umpqua Basin will see decreasing clouds this evening, but we expect low clouds to develop later tonight due to the recent moisture. It's possible this area could experience patchy fog late tonight into Thursday morning. Wednesday, precipitation will linger in portions of Northern California, but at the same time will be diminishing. Elsewhere it will be dry. Dry and colder weather is expected Wednesday night with less cloud cover expected. Even at the coast, we'll have another round of freezing temperatures. In fact, overnight lows Wednesday night could end up lower than tonight, and a Freeze Warning that's out will also be in effect for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Thursday will be dry with slightly milder temperatures in the afternoon after a cold start to the morning. -Petrucelli .LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday, March 7-12, 2024 and beyond... An upper level ridge will move into the area Thursday and remain in control of the weather through Friday giving the area a much-needed break from the onslaught of systems since late February. Cold, frosty mornings will give way to mainly sunny, milder afternoons. We'll see an upward trend in high temperatures, though it will remain a bit on the cool side, at least with respect to normal. The upper ridge axis will shift to the east of the Cascades Friday afternoon and SSW flow aloft will develop in advance of the next front offshore. A progressive pattern will bring another series of fronts into the area late this week, this weekend and into early next week. The first front is expected to deliver some gusty winds, rain and mountain snow to the area Friday night into Saturday. This system will be fairly typical for early March and won't be nearly as cold as the one this past weekend. Since snow levels are expected to be generally 4000 feet or higher, winter impacts from it will be minimal and mostly confined to higher passes and the mountains, though snow levels may dip to around 3500 feet by Saturday morning. Early estimates for QPF are in the 0.50-1.50 inch range for the coast, highest in the coast ranges of Curry/western Josephine counties. Amounts drop off to 0.10-0.50 of an inch for inland areas over to the Cascades, but for the Rogue Valley (Medford/Ashland), the Shasta Valley, and areas east of the Cascades, most places will receive less than 0.10 of an inch. In terms of snow above 4000 feet, a few inches are possible over the Cascades/Siskiyous and into western Siskiyou County. Model wind fields aren't too strong, but could bring some gusts in excess of 40 mph. After a brief break Saturday evening (west side) and Saturday night (east side), the next front will move onshore Sunday/Sunday night with a renewed threat of rain, wind and mountain snow. Some timing and strength uncertainties prevent higher confidence here with respect to rain/snow amounts and winds, but this one does look at least a little stronger than its predecessor. Even so, snow impacts should still remain largely above 4000 feet. One more moist frontal system should move onshore out around Monday/Tuesday of next week. Models are showing rises on the rivers in the Coquille Basin, with the Coquille at Coquille approaching flood stage again on Tue, the 12th. So, we'll need to be aware of potential hydro issues. Then, model ensembles/clusters are very well aligned that an upper ridge will amplify along the West Coast in the Wed-Fri (March 13-15) time frame, lasting into the following weekend. This would result in an extended period of drier, warmer weather for mid-March. Models are also showing a decent shot (50% chance) at a high temperature >=70F by Friday in Medford! -Spilde && .AVIATION...05/18Z TAFs...Current radar imagery shows a broad band of precipitation south of the Umpqua Divide this afternoon. The precipitation band will continue to slowly move south, finally mostly over northern California by late Wednesday morning. Behind the front conditions are expected to lower to MVFR in the inland west side valleys, and then to areas of IFR that are expected to linger through Wednesday morning. East of the Cascades IFR conditions are expected to remain for the next 24 hours in extreme southern Oregon into northern California as snow continues. -Sven && .MARINE...Updated 150 PM Tues March 05, 2024...A low pressure system has moved ashore. Behind it, we'll see seas briefly diminish this morning into this afternoon, with breezy north winds persisting through into Wednesday with northerly winds increasing again this evening and tonight to 15 to 25 kt with wind-driven seas steepening. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft through the marine waters through Monday night, with the steepest seas and strongest winds south of Cape Blanco. Gusty winds will then start to move south out of the region late Wednesday into early Thursday with seas decreasing behind them, and we'll have another brief calm period ahead of further frontal systems in the late week into the weekend. Westerly swell increases this weekend but is expected to remain a little below Surf Advisory. -Sven && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ029>031. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ029>031. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ021-022. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon above 3000 feet for ORZ024-026. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon above 3500 feet for ORZ028. CA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon above 3500 feet for CAZ080-081. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ080- 082. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon above 3000 feet for CAZ082. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon above 3500 feet for CAZ083. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ083- 085. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$