FXUS62 KMHX 050238 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 938 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will lift across the area though this evening, then lift north of the area late tonight. An unsettled pattern will persist across ENC through the week as several disturbances impact the area bringing multiple rounds of rain. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 940 PM Monday...An upper low is presently centered over the Carolinas with sfc low pressure lifting through the Pamlico Sound. Rain beginning to push north of the Albemarle Sound, north of the sfc low, gradually tapering off overnight as drier air wraps into the system. Patchy to areas of fog will be possible overnight with moist low levels but clouds will persist limiting radiational cooling so do not anticipate widespread dense fog. Lows tonight will drop the upper 40s to lower 50s except mid 50s along the coast from Hatteras south. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... As of 2 PM Monday...Dry and mild conditions expected Tuesday with skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear in the morning but will see increasing clouds late as the next system advances toward our area. In addition, a coastal trough will approach the coast late in the day but any showers associated with it is expected to remain offshore through the afternoon. Highs will be around 10 degrees above normal inland with temps topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and mid 70s possible across southern areas. Coastal areas will see highs about 5 degrees above normal, in the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...The models continue to indicate a very unsettled pattern for the upcoming week as a series of low pressure systems move across or in vicinity of eastern NC bringing a very good chance for rain. Several inches are possible by the end of next weekend. While there is still uncertainty in the timing of and track of these lows, there is strong agreement that the weather across eastern NC will be very wet, especially but not limited to the coast. Tuesday night through Wednesday night: A Chc/SChc of rain is in the forecast Tue, contained to the outer and inner banks at this time as mid level dry slotting develops further inland Mon night and persists into Tue. Temps will cont above climo with 60s to around 70 interior and 50s to 60s beaches, with lows well above climo continuing. Confidence continues to be high for a mid week wet period, and have upgraded PoPs to categorical centered on Wed afternoon and evening with highest ensemble support during this period. We are also expecting windy conditions Wednesday as the high to our east and the approaching low provide a tightened pressure gradient. Thursday through Monday: The rain threat with this system will linger into Thu as a trailing cold front moves through. This system looks to contain a decent GOM moisture feed and deep srly moist flow, with another chance of fairly significant QPF amounts of over 1" for most. Drier weather will be forecast for Thu night and Fri as high pressure briefly builds in. The models are indicating yet another low passing to the west over next weekend which would bring another good chance for widespread rain beginning Fri night and persisting into at least a portion of next weekend. Upped PoPs to likely with continuing model agreement, but will hold off on categorical as we are still 6 days out. Temps will cont to be well above climo for early March with lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s to low 70s. A dry northwesterly flow kicks in behind the departing low Sunday night into Monday, giving us our first chance of truly clear skies. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 630 PM Monday...Sub-VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday morning with VFR conditions expected to return Tuesday afternoon. Latest obs show widespread IFR cigs and patchy IFR vsbys. Low pressure will lift north across the terminals through this evening bringing widespread showers, then precip will taper off later this evening and overnight as the low lifts north of the area. Primarily IFR-LIFR conditions expected through Tuesday morning. Winds will be variable as the low traverses the area but could see gusts around 15-20 kt inland to 25 kt along the coast at times as the low gradually deepens the next few hours, then winds diminishing and backing. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 315 AM Monday...Expecting waves of sub VFR conditions as widespread precipitation is expected to develop across the area Wed into Thu, and again Saturday into Sunday && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 940 PM Monday...Low pressure over the Pamlico Sound will continue to lift north of the area after midnight. Winds will be variable through this evening as the low traverses the area and will become mainly S to SW after midnight. Latest obs show E-W winds 15-25 kt with seas 5-10 ft. There have been periods when winds have been gusting up to 25-30 kt across the sounds and coastal waters today and expect that to continue through the overnight, however there will be periods of much lighter winds, especially near the center of the low as it moves across the waters. Seas have built up to 7-10 ft across the central waters and 3-6 ft elsewhere this afternoon, which is a bit higher than wave models, so have adjusted upward early in the forecast period. Seas may build slightly higher through this evening but then will gradually subside late tonight and Tuesday with generally 3-6 ft expected by Tuesday afternoon. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 330 AM Monday...Seas start building to 6+ ft again Wednesday as southerly flow strengthens ahead of the low pressure system. Went towards the higher end of guidance and upped the strength of the southerly winds for Wednesday with this update, and now the far edges of the central waters (Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet) are forecast to experience gale force gusts. The remaining coastal waters, Sounds, and the Alligator River are expected to reach small craft advisory criteria gusts of 25+ kt. Seas will peak at 10-11 ft Wednesday evening, but will remain elevated (near or above 6ft) through the remainder of the week into the weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ131-230. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135-231. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...JME/RJ AVIATION...CQD/SK/RJ MARINE...CQD/SK/RJ