FXUS62 KMHX 051104 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 604 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build briefly over the area today into tonight. Beginning late tonight, unsettled weather will return to eastern NC into Wednesday night. Drier weather is expected Thursday and Friday then wet weather is forecast to return Friday night into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 600 AM Tuesday...At 11Z the surface low was located over the DelMarVa, and tracking north. Behind the low, weak high pressure was building into eastern NC and will prevail across the area into tonight. Therefore, not expecting any additional measurable precipitation until late tonight when the next low pressure system begins to affect the region. Though drying is now occurring in the mid levels, the low levels remain saturated and it will take some time to scour this moisture out as mixing will be shallow and the flow light. Thus, current widespread low clouds and areas of fog will be slow to dissipate today lasting through the morning south, and early afternoon north where guidance indicates clearing will take longest. Most areas should see at least a couple of hours of sunshine later this afternoon. Highs will be generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s with light winds. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... As of 2 AM Tuesday...A trough of low pressure will develop just off of the NC coast tonight and begin drifting toward the coast late tonight. Most of the guidance is indicating that showers will develop along and ahead of this feature and move into coastal areas after midnight, then spread inland with the trough around sunrise Wed. PoPs will increase to likely and categorical Outer Banks and Pamlico Sound region with chance elsewhere. Lows will be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM Tuesday...The models continue to indicate a very unsettled pattern through the weekend as a series of low pressure systems move across or in vicinity of eastern NC bringing a very good chance for rain. Several inches are possible by the end of the weekend, with highest QPF for the coast. Wednesday: A shortwave and its associated rainfall will be moving north east of hwy 17 Wednesday morning ahead of a low pressure system moving in from the west Wednesday afternoon/evening. This one-two punch of rainfall is forecasted to drop 1-3 inches of rain for areas east of hwy 17, with isolated totals of 3-4 inches possible for the OBX. PoPs continue to be very high for this event. A lack of instability prevented me from going any higher than Schc thunder mentions for land areas, with a higher chance of thunder along and near the Gulf Stream in the afternoon/evening. Breezy conditions along the coast will exist Wednesday as the high to our east and the approaching low provide a tightened pressure gradient. The potentially high QPF from this event paired with the recent heavy rainfall experienced for the OBX brings up minor flooding concerns. This has been addressed in the HWO, and a flood advisory for OBX might be needed Wednesday if the forecast stays on track. Thursday to Friday Afternoon: Rain from Wednesday's system will move offshore overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning as a trailing cold front moves through and a brief high pressure builds in. We should remain dry through Friday afternoon, with highs on Thu. and Fr. a bit above climo, in the upper 60s to near 70 inland and high 50s to low 60s for the coast. Friday Evening-Sunday: Models continue to be in agreement on yet another low approaching from the west and lifting north of us over the weekend which would bring another good chance for widespread rain beginning Fri night and persisting through Saturday. Some uncertainty exists with the exact timing of this system, with models recently picking up on a slower trend for the low pressure system. The timing uncertainty continues to limit PoPs to likely (<75%) with this update. After the low and associated cold front pass Saturday night into Sunday morning, a dry northwesterly flow kicks in, giving us our first chance of truly clear skies Sunday evening. Temps will continue to be well above climo ahead of the front with lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s to low 70s. Sunday night to Tuesday: The start of the work week should be dry, with clear skies and CAA helping lows reach the 30s for the coastal plain Monday and Tuesday mornings. Highs during this period will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 600 AM Tuesday...Sub-VFR conditions will prevail for much of the TAF period. This morning widespread low clouds and fog will produce LIFR/IFR improving to MVFR conditions which will persist in some cases into early this afternoon before the moisture gets scoured out and VFR conditions develop. Expecting VFR conditions for much of the evening, then low level moisture will return as a trough of low pressure offshore begins to track inland overnight. This will result in low clouds and IFR ceilings returning and eventually scattered to numerous showers by early Wed morning. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 345 AM Tuesday...Expecting waves of sub VFR conditions as widespread precipitation is expected to develop across the area Wed into Thu, and again Sat. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 600 AM Tuesday...Complicated forecast as no sooner due the effects of one system begin to wane and lead to brief improvements in marine conditions, then another system approaches and conditions begin to deteriorate again in 12 hours or less. Low pressure to the north moving away from the area will allow high pressure to briefly build in resulting in diminishing winds and subsiding seas today. Later tonight a trough of low pressure is forecast to develop off the NC coast then move onshore early Wed resulting in increasing winds and building seas late. Therefore the best course of action is to continue the current SCA for the coastal waters and extend then well into the week as hazardous marine conditions are expected throughout this week. For tonight one concern is that SCA conditions could develop over the Pamlico Sound. Some of the high res models develop a area of low pressure along the coastal trough and move it across the Pamlico Sound after midnight with sustained winds around 25 kt. Confidence in this is low but will continue to monitor for this development throughout the day. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... As of 350 AM Tuesday... Wednesday-Thursday: Seas start building to 6+ ft again Wednesday as southerly flow strengthens ahead of the low pressure system. SCA's now cover all the coastal waters for the Wednesday system, with no gale force gusts in the forecast anymore. Sounds and rivers are expected to remain below SCA criteria for Wednesday, but persistent rainfall and a slight chance of thunderstorms still result in less than ideal marine conditions. Marine zone south of Cape Lookout drops it's SCA Thursday afternoon, with SCA's for other coastal waters continuing indefinitely. Friday-Sunday: Continued wave heights of 6+ ft for remaining coastal waters prompted the SCA's for Cape Lookout north to Duck to extend indefinitely, with a current end time of Saturday 0Z which will likely be extended out even further with subsequent updates. Sounds and rivers are currently forecasted to remain below SCA criteria through the weekend, but if models trend stronger with the pressure gradient, this will have to be adjusted. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ150-152-154- 156. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...RJ AVIATION...JME/RJ MARINE...JME/RJ