FXUS62 KMHX 052332 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 632 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build briefly over the area into tonight. Beginning late tonight, unsettled weather will return to eastern NC into Wednesday night. Drier weather is expected Thursday and Friday then wet weather is forecast to return Friday night into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 630 PM Tuesday...No significant changes needed to previous forecast for eve update. Low clouds lingering across NW sections and the portions of the OBX will continue to erode through early this eve, however high clouds will continue to increase and lower overnight as a system currently pushing across the Deep South advances toward the area. In addition, a coastal trough presently across the offshore waters will push to the coast overnight bringing showers across eastern sections of the FA. High Res guidance indicating heavy rainfall developing across portions of the OBX with PW values increasing to around 1.5", near climatological max for this time of year, along with the potential for training cells. Rainfall amounts around 2-4" will be possible through Wednesday across the OBX and counties adjacent to the Pamlico Sound. This same area has seen 3-6" of rain the past couple of days and additional heavy rainfall could bring localized flooding concerns and have issued a Flood Watch for Mainland Dare and the OBX from Ocracoke north through Duck from late tonight into Wednesday evening. Areas to the west are expected to receive much less rainfall, generally less than an inch, and flooding is not a concern here at this time. Temps tonight will remain mild with lows in the mid 50. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 430 PM Tuesday...A robust mid level shortwave and attendant sfc low will continue to push toward the area Wednesday with widespread showers moving across the area. Heavy showers expected to be ongoing across coastal sections during the morning, which slides offshore around mid day, however additional moderate to potentially heavy showers associated with the upper level shortwave and sfc low will be quickly moving into the area through the morning and afternoon. As mentioned in the Near Term discussion, highest rainfall totals expected across eastern portions of the FA with 2-4" possible east of an approx line from the Alligator River to Beufort Inlet ramping down to around an inch or less to the west of this line. Instability looks to be very meager with MUCAPE only 100-300 J/Kg at best and have confined slt chance thunder to the immediate coast sections. Temps will be above normal with highs generally in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 AM Tuesday...The models continue to indicate a very unsettled pattern through the weekend as a series of low pressure systems move across or in vicinity of eastern NC bringing a very good chance for rain. Several inches are possible by the end of the weekend, with highest QPF for the coast. Thursday to Friday Afternoon: Rain from Wednesday's system will move offshore overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning as a trailing cold front moves through and a brief high pressure builds in. We should remain dry through Friday afternoon, with highs on Thu. and Fr. a bit above climo, in the upper 60s to near 70 inland and high 50s to low 60s for the coast. Friday Evening-Sunday: Models continue to be in agreement on yet another low approaching from the west and lifting north of us over the weekend which would bring another good chance for widespread rain beginning Fri night and persisting through Saturday. Some uncertainty exists with the exact timing of this system, with models recently picking up on a slower trend for the low pressure system. The timing uncertainty continues to limit PoPs to likely (<75%) with this update. After the low and associated cold front pass Saturday night into Sunday morning, a dry northwesterly flow kicks in, giving us our first chance of truly clear skies Sunday evening. Temps will continue to be well above climo ahead of the front with lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s to low 70s. Sunday night to Tuesday: The start of the work week should be dry, with clear skies and CAA helping lows reach the 30s for the coastal plain Monday and Tuesday mornings. Highs during this period will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 630 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions currently across the terminals, but expect conditions to deteriorate late this evening and overnight. Most guidance is indicating fog advecting in from the coast into far nrn rtes later this evening along with low stratus. In addition, a coastal trough will move into eastern sections after midnight with a low pressure system approaching the area from the SW bringing moderate to heavy showers across rtes after midnight through the day Wednesday. Expect cigs to return to sub-VFR after midnight and persist through the rest of the TAF period with a prolonged period of IFR/LIFR likely. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 345 AM Tuesday...Expecting waves of sub VFR conditions as widespread precipitation is expected to develop across the area Wed night into Thu, and again Sat. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 630 PM Tuesday...Currently seeing light winds across the waters, mainly less than 10 kt, and seas around 3-5 ft. A coastal trough will move into the waters tonight with a low pressure system approaching from the SW bringing tightening pressure gradients and will see SE to S wind increasing to 10-20 kt late tonight and Wednesday. Strongest winds will be near the warmer Gulf Stream waters where better mixing will be in place and could see gusts around 25-30 kt. Seas will gradually build to 6-10 ft on Wednesday with a significant southerly fetch off the SE coast. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... As of 450 PM Tuesday...Wednesday night-Thursday: SCA ongoing across the coastal waters through Thursday, mainly for seas around 6-10 ft Wednesday night, subsiding to 4-7 ft Thursday, however could see wind gusts around 25-30 kt at times, especially across the outer portions of the waters near the Gulf Stream. Friday-Sunday: Continued wave heights of 6+ ft for remaining coastal waters prompted the SCA's for Cape Lookout north to Duck to extend indefinitely, with a current end time of Saturday 0Z which will likely be extended out even further with subsequent updates. Sounds and rivers are currently forecasted to remain below SCA criteria through the weekend, but if models trend stronger with the pressure gradient, this will have to be adjusted. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch from 3 AM EST Wednesday through Wednesday evening for NCZ047-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for AMZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Saturday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...RJ AVIATION...CQD/SK/RJ MARINE...CQD/SK/RJ