FXUS66 KMTR 050535
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
935 PM PST Mon Mar 4 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 100 PM PST Mon Mar 4 2024

Unsettled conditions expected to persist through midweek, yet no
widespread flooding concerns. Warmer and drier weather finally
returns late week followed by a return to unsettled weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM PST Mon Mar 4 2024

Rain showers have about all ended as of early this afternoon except
for the North Bay. Rain chances return to the North Bay later this
afternoon and into tomorrow as another short-wave trough approaches
the region. Rainfall amounts will be light and mostly beneficial.

Tomorrow will be slightly warmer across the Bay Area and more so
over the Central Coast and Santa Clara Valley. Temperatures will
range from the upper 50s in the North Bay to mid 60s across the
interior. Light rain will continue over the North Bay and may drop
as far south as the Santa Cruz Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM PST Mon Mar 4 2024

The low pressure system looks to come ashore somewhere along the
Central Coast on Wednesday, which may trigger a few stronger
showers. As the low continues to push inland, the southerly winds
will flip back to northerly as subtropical high pressure slides
into the driver's seat. Thursday and Friday look to be the nicest
days of the week with clear skies, mild temperatures and a
moderate northerly breeze. The clouds and rain return with a cold
front expected over the weekend. The current guidance suggest rain
will be light to moderate, and mostly confined to the North Bay.
All rain this week looks to be mostly beneficial, with no
widespread flooding concerns.

Looking way ahead, ensemble guidance and the Climate Prediction
Center are both suggesting we will move out of this cold wet
pattern in mid-March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 927 PM PST Mon Mar 4 2024

Not much change from the 00z taf package with the forecast on
track. SW winds will continue to diminish and turn more S/SE
through the overnight hours. Light rain showers and MVFR cigs
persist over KSTS and will continue overnight. Change from 00z
tafs is there's a slightly higher chance for brief IFR cigs at
KSTS by early morning, but confidence is moderate. Light SE winds
in the morning will shift SW again and become breezy by the
afternoon hours as surface low lingers near the NorCal coastline.
VFR will likely continue through the taf period (exception being
KSTS).

Vicinity of SFO...Breezy SW winds will shift southerly and
diminish tonight through the morning hours Tuesday. Winds shift
back to SW tomorrow afternoon, potentially gusting up to 15 knots
during the afternoon. Light VCSH possible overnight through the
morning as well with cloud decks lowering to 3500-5000 feet AGL.
Southerly winds again diminish Tues night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with high clouds lingering. SE
drainage flow expected overnight, becoming increasingly breezy
through the Salinas Valley tonight into early Tues AM. Breezy SW
winds expected Tues afternoon, reducing again and switching SE by
the evening.


&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 927 PM PST Mon Mar 4 2024

Northwest swell continues to diminish while gentle to moderate
southerly breezes will persist through tomorrow as a surface low
approaches the Northern California coastline. As a result, shower
activity will increase in coverage through Wednesday.
Northwesterly winds will increase and become stronger Wednesday
into Thursday, which will result in elevated and hazardous seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...McCorkle
MARINE...McCorkle

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