FXUS66 KMTR 050838
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1238 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1235 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024

Rain chances persist through Wednesday with drier conditions by
late week. Unsettled conditions return for early next week with
rain back in the forecast. Overall not looking for anything overly
impactful weather-wise through the next 7 days or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1235 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024

A closed upper low will slowly migrate from near 40N135W to just
offshore from the Central Coast tonight. The associated surface
frontal zone will locate to our north today before moving into the
Bay Area tonight. This should confine rain chances today to areas
north of the Golden Gate, with the best potential over northern Napa
and Sonoma Counties. By late tonight those chances will increase for
coastal portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast as well. Given
the core of the low looks to remain offshore precipitation amounts
should be much more limited for interior portions of the Bay Area
and Central Coast where only a few hundredths of an inch are
expected. Otherwise look for around 0.25-0.75" in the Sonoma Hills
with 0.1-0.25" in the North Bay Valleys for today into tonight.
Temperatures will remain cool-ish with plenty of cloud cover around
and highs mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows tonight will be
in the 40s, with 30s in the Mountains.
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1235 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024

The upper low will make its closest approach to the Central Coast on
Wednesday before dropping south towards SoCal by Thursday. This will
bring a continuation of shower chances for Wednesday into Wednesday
night with the greatest focus along the Central Coast. Some limited
instability will accompany the upper low so can't rule out an
isolated storm but this isn't the most likely scenario as the better
instability remains offshore. However briefly heavy rain rates are
possible in showers Wednesday afternoon but they should be fairly
quick moving with overall limited impacts.

Thursday and Friday will feature cool mornings, more sunshine, and
seasonal afternoons. Highs each day will generally be in the lower
to mid 60s with lows dipping into the upper 30s and 40s.

A troughing pattern looks to establish by early next week with rain
chances returning. Amounts look light to moderate and not overly
impactful at this point in time.

Forecast model ensembles and the latest Climate Prediction Center
outlook suggests a shift towards drier conditions/near-normal
precipitation headings towards mid month.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 927 PM PST Mon Mar 4 2024

Not much change from the 00z taf package with the forecast on
track. SW winds will continue to diminish and turn more S/SE
through the overnight hours. Light rain showers and MVFR cigs
persist over KSTS and will continue overnight. Change from 00z
tafs is there's a slightly higher chance for brief IFR cigs at
KSTS by early morning, but confidence is moderate. Light SE winds
in the morning will shift SW again and become breezy by the
afternoon hours as surface low lingers near the NorCal coastline.
VFR will likely continue through the taf period (exception being
KSTS).

Vicinity of SFO...Breezy SW winds will shift southerly and
diminish tonight through the morning hours Tuesday. Winds shift
back to SW tomorrow afternoon, potentially gusting up to 15 knots
during the afternoon. Light VCSH possible overnight through the
morning as well with cloud decks lowering to 3500-5000 feet AGL.
Southerly winds again diminish Tues night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with high clouds lingering. SE
drainage flow expected overnight, becoming increasingly breezy
through the Salinas Valley tonight into early Tues AM. Breezy SW
winds expected Tues afternoon, reducing again and switching SE by
the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 927 PM PST Mon Mar 4 2024

Northwest swell continues to diminish while gentle to moderate
southerly breezes will persist through tomorrow as a surface low
approaches the Northern California coastline. As a result, shower
activity will increase in coverage through Wednesday.
Northwesterly winds will increase and become stronger Wednesday
into Thursday, which will result in elevated and hazardous seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...McCorkle
MARINE...McCorkle

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