FXUS66 KMTR 051135 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 335 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1235 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 Rain chances persist through Wednesday with drier conditions by late week. Unsettled conditions return for early next week with rain back in the forecast. Overall not looking for anything overly impactful weather-wise through the next 7 days or so. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1235 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 A closed upper low will slowly migrate from near 40N135W to just offshore from the Central Coast tonight. The associated surface frontal zone will locate to our north today before moving into the Bay Area tonight. This should confine rain chances today to areas north of the Golden Gate, with the best potential over northern Napa and Sonoma Counties. By late tonight those chances will increase for coastal portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast as well. Given the core of the low looks to remain offshore precipitation amounts should be much more limited for interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast where only a few hundredths of an inch are expected. Otherwise look for around 0.25-0.75" in the Sonoma Hills with 0.1-0.25" in the North Bay Valleys for today into tonight. Temperatures will remain cool-ish with plenty of cloud cover around and highs mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows tonight will be && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1235 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 The upper low will make its closest approach to the Central Coast on Wednesday before dropping south towards SoCal by Thursday. This will bring a continuation of shower chances for Wednesday into Wednesday night with the greatest focus along the Central Coast. Some limited instability will accompany the upper low so can't rule out an isolated storm but this isn't the most likely scenario as the better instability remains offshore. However briefly heavy rain rates are possible in showers Wednesday afternoon but they should be fairly quick moving with overall limited impacts. Thursday and Friday will feature cool mornings, more sunshine, and seasonal afternoons. Highs each day will generally be in the lower to mid 60s with lows dipping into the upper 30s and 40s. A troughing pattern looks to establish by early next week with rain chances returning. Amounts look light to moderate and not overly impactful at this point in time. Forecast model ensembles and the latest Climate Prediction Center outlook suggests a shift towards drier conditions/near-normal precipitation headings towards mid month. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 Forecast on track for MVFR CIGs this morning with scattered very light rain showers moving through. Expect a lull in shower activity today, with a return of showers just after the end of the current TAF period. Prevailing winds shift SW and become breezy to 15 kts this afternoon in gap and coastal areas. Vicinity of SFO...Winds shift to SW and become breezy to 15 kts this afternoon before diminishing again overnight. Cloud decks persisting between 3-5 kft throughout the period. VCSH this morning and slight chance for more widespread rain at the end of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with high clouds lingering. SE drainage flow turning SW this afternoon. Low confidence in a slight chance for light showers this morning and just after the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 Northwest swell continues to diminish through midweek. Gentle to moderate southerly breezes will persist through today as a surface low approaches the Northern California coastline. As a result, shower activity will increase in coverage through Wednesday. Northwesterly winds will increase and become stronger Wednesday into Thursday, which will result in elevated and hazardous seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPM LONG TERM....SPM AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...Behringer Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea