FXUS66 KMTR 051800 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1000 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1235 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 Rain chances persist through Wednesday with drier conditions by late week. Unsettled conditions return for early next week with rain back in the forecast. Overall not looking for anything overly impactful weather-wise through the next 7 days or so. && .UPDATE... Issued at 836 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 Morning visible satellite imagery and regional webcams show increasing clouds across the Bay Area and Central Coast. These clouds are associated with an approaching low pressure system lurking off the coast. The region is in the warm sector of this approaching low pressure system, which definitely promotes increasing clouds. KMUX radar remains in precip mode early this morning as it continues to detect a few passing showers/virga ahead of the approaching low pressure. No update needed this morning as current forecast handles the light rain chances today. Better chances for precip tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1235 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 A closed upper low will slowly migrate from near 40N135W to just offshore from the Central Coast tonight. The associated surface frontal zone will locate to our north today before moving into the Bay Area tonight. This should confine rain chances today to areas north of the Golden Gate, with the best potential over northern Napa and Sonoma Counties. By late tonight those chances will increase for coastal portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast as well. Given the core of the low looks to remain offshore precipitation amounts should be much more limited for interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast where only a few hundredths of an inch are expected. Otherwise look for around 0.25-0.75" in the Sonoma Hills with 0.1-0.25" in the North Bay Valleys for today into tonight. Temperatures will remain cool-ish with plenty of cloud cover around and highs mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows tonight will be && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1235 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 The upper low will make its closest approach to the Central Coast on Wednesday before dropping south towards SoCal by Thursday. This will bring a continuation of shower chances for Wednesday into Wednesday night with the greatest focus along the Central Coast. Some limited instability will accompany the upper low so can't rule out an isolated storm but this isn't the most likely scenario as the better instability remains offshore. However briefly heavy rain rates are possible in showers Wednesday afternoon but they should be fairly quick moving with overall limited impacts. Thursday and Friday will feature cool mornings, more sunshine, and seasonal afternoons. Highs each day will generally be in the lower to mid 60s with lows dipping into the upper 30s and 40s. A troughing pattern looks to establish by early next week with rain chances returning. Amounts look light to moderate and not overly impactful at this point in time. Forecast model ensembles and the latest Climate Prediction Center outlook suggests a shift towards drier conditions/near-normal precipitation headings towards mid month. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 955 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 Currently seeing terminals between IFR and VFR. Ceilings are due to clear by this afternoon giving way for widespread VFR through the remainder of the TAF period, aside from STS. Light rain shower chances return towards the end of the TAF period with best chances at North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals. Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with breezy easterly flow. Winds will become breezy out of the southwest today with occasional gusts of 15-20 knots possible. Winds will become breezy out of the southeast tonight and trend towards northwest flow towards the end of the TAF period. Light rain shower chances return towards the end of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR at both terminals with breezy onshore flow at MRY and breezy to gusty drainage flow at SNS. SNS winds will become onshore this afternoon before both terminals return to breezy drainage flow late tonight. Light rain shower chances return towards the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 955 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 Northwest swell continuing to diminish through midweek. Gentle to moderate southerly breezes persist through today as a surface low approaches the Northern California coastline. As a result, shower activity increases in coverage through Wednesday. Northwesterly winds will build and become stronger Wednesday into Thursday, which will result in elevated and hazardous seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPM LONG TERM....SPM AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea