FXUS66 KMTR 052113
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
113 PM PST Tue Mar 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1235 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024

Rain chances persist through Wednesday with drier conditions by
late week. Unsettled conditions return for early next week with
rain back in the forecast. Overall not looking for anything overly
impactful weather-wise through the next 7 days or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM PST Tue Mar 5 2024

The main weather maker impacting the Bay Area and Central Coast
through the short term will be an approaching low pressure
system. Per latest water vapor imagery one can see the low digging
approximately 400 miles west of San Francisco. Give the current
position of the low the Bay Area is square in the middle of the
warm sector. Solid warm air advection and weak isentropic lift
have led to accumulating precip over the last 12 hours. Rain has
occurred mainly north of Redwood City with the greatest rain
totals north of the Golden Gate. Rainfall totals have generally
been a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch with Mt Tam around one
quarter of an inch.

Precip chances will increase across the entire forecast tonight
into Wednesday as the low pressure inches toward the coast.
Latest guidance continues to show the low kisses the coast, but
never really moves inland before moving southward during the day
Wednesday. Regardless, additional precip is expected with cloud
cover. There is a very small chance (10-15%) for thunderstorms
over the coastal waters early Wednesday. Rainfall totals through
Wednesday: North Bay Mts and Santa Lucia Mts 0.25-0.75", elsewhere
0.01-0.3". Far East Bay may see little to no precip. In addition
to precip winds will increase through Wednesday, but the strongest
winds will remain over the coastal waters and along the immediate
coast. No wind advisory will be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 115 PM PST Tue Mar 5 2024

To kick off the long term, a drying trend will develop. As the
low pressure system moves down the coast to SoCal any lingering
showers will end from north to south Wednesday evening/night.

Dry weather returns on Thursday and Friday with increased sunshine
and seasonal temperatures. Highs in the upper 50s and 60s and lows
in the upper 30s to 40s.

WPC cluster analysis and ensemble guidance indicate broad
troughing returning to Northeast Pacific by next weekend. The
approaching trough will bring back cooler temperatures and
additional precip chances. At this point, rain chance seem
greatest north of Monterey Bay. Lower end impact when it comes to
precip - more beneficial rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 955 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024

Currently seeing terminals between IFR and VFR. Ceilings are due
to clear by this afternoon giving way for widespread VFR through
the remainder of the TAF period, aside from STS. Light rain shower
chances return towards the end of the TAF period with best
chances at North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with breezy easterly flow. Winds
will become breezy out of the southwest today with occasional gusts
of 15-20 knots possible. Winds will become breezy out of the
southeast tonight and trend towards northwest flow towards the end
of the TAF period. Light rain shower chances return towards the end
of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR at both terminals with breezy
onshore flow at MRY and breezy to gusty drainage flow at SNS. SNS
winds will become onshore this afternoon before both terminals
return to breezy drainage flow late tonight. Light rain shower
chances return towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 955 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024

Northwest swell continuing to diminish through midweek. Gentle to
moderate southerly breezes persist through today as a surface low
approaches the Northern California coastline. As a result, shower
activity increases in coverage through Wednesday. Northwesterly
winds will build and become stronger Wednesday into Thursday,
which will result in elevated and hazardous seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PST Thursday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10
     nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PST Thursday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...DialH

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