FXUS66 KOTX 051804 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1004 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Afternoon showers will return once more Tuesday afternoon, then retreat to the Idaho Panhandle for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will remain below average with very chilly mornings through Friday morning, then trend to near normal values for the weekend with the return of widespread precipitation. && Updates: Fog is continuing to erode/diminish this morning and should have limited to no impact by afternoon. 12Z KOTX sounding this morning shows a slightly lower tropopause with the cold pool bottoming out at -48 degrees C near 420mb which mirrors less conditional instability and steepness to the cold pool in comparison to yesterdays 12Z KOTX sounding bottoming out near -59 degrees C near 350mb. Thus with a less intense cold pool overhead and the resulting lapse rates not as "tall" in the atmosphere coupled with less triggers in the flow to utilize the instability the current forecast still calls for afternoon and evening tall cumulus buildups but any resulting convection is expected to be less intense in comparison to the graupel and snow showers yesterday afternoon and evening. /Pelatti && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Fog and low clouds decreasing with impacts most likely minimal, if any after 20Z Today. Near 21Z today to about 04Z Wednesday tall cumulus cloud buildups and associated snow showers will bring about MVFR conditions and mountain obscurations. After 04Z Wednesday a return to IFR and perhaps between 08Z-18Z Wednesday some patchy fog/low cloud redevelopment may occur. /Pelatti FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: I can't think of any significant alternative scenarios at the moment but as far as forecast confidence is concerned as to the evolution of the weather as far as how todays fog diminishes and snow showers develop this afternoon and evening I would state I have moderate confidence. /Pelatti ------------------------ Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 39 21 40 21 40 23 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 36 19 37 19 39 19 / 20 0 10 0 0 0 Pullman 38 22 39 22 39 23 / 10 0 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 43 28 45 28 45 27 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 39 15 39 16 41 19 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 35 18 36 19 38 19 / 20 0 10 0 10 0 Kellogg 37 22 37 19 37 19 / 20 10 30 0 10 0 Moses Lake 44 24 44 24 45 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 43 23 42 25 44 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 42 22 42 22 44 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$