FXUS66 KPDT 051707 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 907 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 .MORNING UPDATE...Snowfall continues this morning across portions of Oregon, including the Foothills of the Blue Mountains as well as Central Oregon through the Ochoco-John Day Highlands. Snowfall has been particularly notable across the Foothills of the Blues as a few slow moving cells put down some decent snowfall, but the majority of this is melting off as ground and air temperatures continue to rise above freezing. Activity should transition to rainfall over the next hour or so, while the snowfall to the south across Central Oregon will continue through the late morning hours before pushing off to the southeast. Some lingering activity may persist through this afternoon, but it will be light at best, and by tonight look for dry conditions as we enter a clear, ridging pattern through the end of the week. Goatley/87 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024/ SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...An upper level trough centered over central Canada continues to dominate the weather from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Upper Plains. A shortwave moving through the trough is moving through Washington and northeast Oregon this morning ushering in cool drier air from the north. Meanwhile, a nearly stalled front remains over central and southern Oregon. This front will continue to generate light to moderate snowfall across central Oregon through the morning and then decrease to showers in the afternoon as the front slowly sags southward. The winter weather advisories for this area continues through 10am. The showers over central Oregon will come to an end this evening. The upper level trough will finally move off to the east leaving the forecast area under a dry but cool northwest flow Wednesday and Thursday. The cool northwest flow will continue to hold high temperatures slightly cooler than normal through the short term period. LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Ensembles depict a generally progressive pattern through the period, yielding seasonable conditions with chances of valley rain and mountain snow through early next week. QPF ensembles aren't particularly impressive across our lower elevations, while signaling more respectable values across our high mountain zones. Friday looks to be dry as ensembles suggest transitory ridging overhead before switching to a more prolonged SW pattern through the weekend heading into early next week. NBM PoPs generally range from 20-40% outside of crest level until late Sunday / early Monday, when ensembles bring the axis of a shortwave across the PacNW, increasing PoPs across the entirety of the forecast area. This pattern as depicted by guidance will preclude chances for wintry precip across most of our population zones thanks to mild SW flow aloft, but our mountain passes could see accumulating snow fall with snow levels hovering around the 3000-4000 ft range. Uncertainty is on the higher end, however, with forecast confidence in impactful pass-level snowfall only around 30-40%, due to how progressive the synoptic pattern is (affecting timing) and the borderline snow levels. Temps will hover around seasonal averages for the period. Expecting highs in the low 50s across our population centers, with rain being a threat primarily toward the latter half of the period when the trough axis passes through. Difficult to dial in on details beyond the shortwave passage, as the progressive synoptic pattern leads to greatly diverging solutions across ensemble clusters beyond Monday. Evans/74 AVIATION...12z TAFs...Snow showers continue for BDN/RDM and are expected to persist until around 22z, before dry and gradually clearing conditions are expected to take over. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected, with light winds less than 10 kts and low- mid clouds around 5-10 kft gradually clearing through the day. Evans/74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 43 26 44 27 / 30 0 0 0 ALW 44 26 45 28 / 30 0 0 0 PSC 48 30 48 31 / 10 0 0 0 YKM 47 25 47 26 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 47 29 48 29 / 20 0 0 0 ELN 44 21 43 23 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 38 19 41 21 / 60 0 0 0 LGD 39 20 41 23 / 30 0 0 0 GCD 38 18 40 21 / 70 10 0 0 DLS 49 28 48 30 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ506- 509-511. WA...None. && $$ MORING UPDATE...87 SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74