FXUS66 KPDT 052243 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 243 PM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...It's been a challenging forecast today thanks to slow moving convection in the form of rain/snow mix forming across some of the hills and higher locations near the borders of WA/OR. This activity has been ever so slowly making its way eastward producing some noteworthy activity including a report of half an inch of snowfall to the west of I-82 in the Horse Heaven Hills! As impressive as this activity is, seeing the returns finally starting to weaken on radar imagery, and with the system that produced this moving out of the region and daytime heating close to waning, the expectation is that we should see this all begin to fall apart very soon. As we move into the evening, the shortwave that produced this activity will continue to exit the region, with snow and showers leaving with it. After this, the rest of the short term is expected to be pleasantly quiet under a dry northwesterly flow with ridging building in. Expect clearing skies and temperatures remaining similar to today, with highs below average by around 5 to 10 degrees. A bit of fog might be possible tonight around the Blues thanks to the clearing, moisture at the surface, and supportive profiles with an inversion possible, but expecting this will likely be patchy at best with low confidence (10-20%). Goatley/87 .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Models in good agreement through Sunday but begin to diverge Monday onward. This is reflected nicely in the EOFs with the greatest variance in amplitude Monday and speed Tuesday. Despite these differences, the pattern will be mostly progressive through the period. A weak ridge will keep the weather mostly dry Friday, but Saturday through Tuesday will stay pretty active with periods of low elevation rain and mountain snow. Precipitation amounts should generally remain light, except there's a strong gradient along the Cascade peaks for Sunday with a 75%+ chance of 24 hour totals exceeding 0.50 inch. Tuesday's system appears to be the wettest, at this time, with all but the Columbia Basin and Central Oregon having a moderate to likely chance (40-65%) of exceeding a 0.25 inch. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the period. Earle && .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. However, light snow will continue at KBDN through early evening reducing VSBYs and CIGs to MVFR or less. Skies will clear overnight which may produce conditions for patchy fog to develop overnight. Confidence is low (10-20%) so will only mention a hint of it at KPDT, but it could develop just about anywhere. Winds will be 10 kts or less through the period. Earle && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 24 43 24 44 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 26 44 26 46 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 28 48 28 49 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 23 46 24 48 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 27 48 27 49 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 21 43 23 45 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 18 41 19 43 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 19 41 21 42 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 18 40 19 42 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 28 48 28 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....81 AVIATION...81