FXUS01 KWBC 050806
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EST Tue Mar 05 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 05 2024 - 12Z Thu Mar 07 2024

...A wet weather pattern for large areas to the east of the
Mississippi River...

...Heavy higher elevation snows continue for northern portions of
the West Tuesday with improving conditions by Wednesday...

...Much above average temperatures expected for much of the lower
48 to the east of the Rockies over the next few days...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms bringing areas of moderate
rainfall continue this morning along a slow-moving cold front
stretching from the Great Lakes into the Middle and Lower
Mississippi Valley. Storm chances will shift into the Lower Great
Lakes southwestward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through
the day Tuesday as the front makes some eastward progress. To the
south, another frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast will lift
northward, bringing with it additional Gulf moisture and storm
chances into the Southeast. A wave of low pressure is expected to
develop along the boundary overnight Tuesday as the system shifts
northeastward into the Carolinas. More widespread moderate to
locally heavy rainfall is expected through the region with an
isolated threat of flash flooding. Meanwhile, a coastal low in the
Mid-Atlantic will continue northward bringing light to moderate
showers from the Mid-Atlantic into New England Tuesday. By
Wednesday, the low pressure system over the Southeast will begin
to better organize and shift northeastward along the coast towards
the Mid-Atlantic/New England. The frontal system over the Great
Lakes will move eastward into the Northeast as well, helping to
focus a renewed round of heavier showers along a northeastward
axis from the coastal Mid-Atlantic through New England. A Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/5) is in place for portions of
southern New England where the heaviest rainfall will overlap wet
antecedent conditions and areas with higher stream flows, which
may result in some scattered instances of flash flooding. Some
wintry precipitation may mix in north of the cold front over
northern New England overnight Wednesday.

One more day of heavy higher elevation/mountain snows continues in
the West as an energetic jet stream sits over a quasi-stationary
boundary and an influx of Pacific moisture focused through
northern California and the southern Pacific Northwest into the
northern Great Basin and Rockies. Several more inches of snow are
forecast in the regional mountain ranges from the southern
Cascades and northern Sierra east to the Tetons in Wyoming. Colder
air settling in with the front has brought snow levels lower,
bringing snow to interior lower elevation valley locations as well
from southern Oregon into western Idaho. Another Pacific storm
system dropping southward along the California Coast will help to
shift the influx of Pacific moisture southward by Wednesday,
finally bringing improving conditions as snowfall tapers off.
Along the coast, some locally heavy rainfall is expected Tuesday
for northern California, shifting southward with the system into
southern California Wednesday. Here, more sensitive conditions due
to recent high profile rainfall events may lead to an isolated but
nonzero threat of flash flooding.

Elsewhere, an upper-level shortwave will help to deepen/better
organize a low pressure/frontal system lingering over the Northern
Plains Wednesday, leading to increasing precipitation chances.
Some accumulating snowfall looks possible along the Canadian
border from northern North Dakota into northern Minnesota by early
Thursday. Further south, another organizing frontal system will
also bring increasing precipitation chances to the Central and
Southern Plains, with some showers and thunderstorms forecast
overnight Wednesday into early Thursday.

High temperatures will remain well above average by 10-20 degrees
for the lower 48 east of the Rockies through midweek. Some even
greater anomalies will be found in the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower
Great Lakes Tuesday as temperatures once again reach into the 70s,
25-35 degrees above average. The cold front passing through by
Wednesday will make temperatures relatively cooler, but still
above average, with highs in the upper 40s to low 60s. The warmest
temperatures will be found along the western Gulf Coast into
southern Texas with highs in the mid-80s to low 90s. A few daily
record-tying/breaking highs may be reached in both locations.
Otherwise, along the East Coast, forecast highs range between the
40s and 50s in New England, 50s and 60s in the Mid-Atlantic, 60s
and 70s for the Southeast, and 70s and 80s into Florida. For
central portions of the country, highs will be in the 40s and 50s
for the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, 50s and 60s from the
Central Plains through the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the
Lower Ohio Valley, and the 60s and 70s for the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley. In the West, highs will remain near or
below average as mean troughing remains in place, with
temperatures ranging from the 20s and 30s for the Northern
Rockies/adjacent High Plains, 30s and 40s for the Great Basin and
Pacific Northwest, 50s and 60s for California, and 60s and 70s in
the Southwest.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$