FXUS62 KMHX 051400 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1000 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered offshore through the weekend bringing return flow and oppressive heat and humidity to the area. At the same time a weakening cold front will approach from the west this weekend and eventually stall over the Eastern Seaboard before dissipating Sunday into Monday. This will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with daily chances for afternoon showers and storms persisting into the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... As of 10 AM Friday... No significant changes since the previous update as shower activity has since pushed offshore and ENC should remain dry over the next few hours before potential seabreeze activity starts up. Otherwise mostly clear skies are noted across much of ENC outside of the OBX and Crystal Coast where some mid level cloud cover is ongoing. Previous Discussion...As of 300 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGES: - Heat Advisory in effect from 11AM to 8PM for much of ENC outside of the immediate coast. Heat Indices of 105-110F possible inland, with Heat Indices of 95-100F possible for beaches. - 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, primarily along and west of hwy 17 this afternoon and evening. Severe weather not expected. 00Z suite of high res guidance continued to show a line of isolated to scattered showers developing along the coast early this morning. With instability very low before sunrise, kept out any showers from the forecast before 8am. After 8am however, instability will be increasing as we warm up, so added a line of Schc PoPs moving eastward and leaving exiting the coastal marine zones by noon. Schc of thunderstorms possible along the warmer waters of the gulf stream. Not expecting any impactful rainfall with this line along OBX and the Crystal Coast. Not much change in the upper or surface pattern for Friday as upper ridging remains centered over the Southeast and surface ridging remains centered offshore with a thermal trough setting up across the Piedmont once again Fri afternoon. This will bring our first threat for oppressive heat and humidity this weekend as S'rly flow continues to advect moisture N'wards allowing dewpoints to creep up into the low-mid 70s across ENC while low level thicknesses support temps in the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and OBX. Combined with the humidity it will feel like its closer to 105-110 across the Coastal Plain and 95-100 across coastal locations. With this in mind have elected to continue heat advisories for our inland zones as the highest confidence for reaching criteria is noted here. Make sure to drink plenty of fluids and limit strenuous outdoor activity if you plan to be outside for extended periods of time on Friday given this threat for heat related impacts. Shower and thunderstorm activity should begin to develop across the Piedmont in the afternoon and spread E'wards eventually reaching the Coastal Plain in the mid to late afternoon timeframe ahead of the sea breeze rapidly moving through the region with southerly flow. Increased to Chc PoPs with this update with most hi-res guidance outside of the HRRR showing isolated to scattered convection developing. Behind the sea breeze conditions are more stable, and shower/tstorm development is not expected in this region. Severe potential is low (<10%) with any thunderstorms that develop today with weak shear. Storms will be pulse-y in nature, and some stronger gusts as the storms collapse are possible with DCAPEs between 700-1000 J/kg. In addition to the heat and rain chances, a thermal gradient will set up along NOBX, resulting in gusty conditions (25-30 mph) this afternoon and evening from Core Banks to NOBX. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday...Showers and thunderstorms quickly die down as instability decreases after sunset. Warm night is in store, with lows in the mid 70s inland, upper 70s for beaches. This will not provide much relief from the heat before even warmer temps are in store Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 AM Fri... KEY MESSAGES: - Oppressive heat and humidity continues Saturday, with heat index values likely peaking at 105-110 degrees for most of the area. Expect oppressive heat and humidity to continue Saturday with upper ridging aloft, and sfc high pressure anchored offshore. High temps again will soar into the mid to upper 90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the beaches, combined with dewpoints in the 70s. This will likely lead to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg for many areas. Heat Advisories will likely be needed for portions of the area. A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area, while weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast. This boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast this weekend into next week. Expect convective chances to be near or slightly above climo, with better chances for more widespread coverage mid to late next week. Another front will approach the area late next week, possibly stalling over the area as weak waves develop along it. Still too much uncertainty this far out, so will continue to cap pops at chance through the period. At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit overall svr threat. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards 2.5". Temps beyond Sat look to be near climo, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each day and overnight lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 630 AM Friday...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, outside of lower ceilings or visibilities that could set up in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Showers and tstorms setting up for TAF terminals after 2pm, although coverage will be isolated to scattered. Gusty conditions in store for OBX with a thermal gradient setting up from hot conditions over land and (relatively) cooler waters off NOBX. Southerly gusts up to 30mph are possible from 1PM to 10PM Friday. Friday night sub-VFR ceilings are possible for OBX. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 250 AM Fri...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sct shower/tstm chances, mainly diurnal, return this weekend and early next week, which could bring periods of sub- VFR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 330 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGES: -Issued Small Craft Advisories for southerly gusts of 25-30kts. Advisories are for coastal waters between Duck and Oregon Inlet, Albemarle Sound, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds, Pamlico Sound, and Alligator River. Benign conditions observed this morning with seas 2-4 feet, 5 feet along the gulf stream, and southerly winds 2-4 ft seas and SSW winds 10-15G20kts. As we get into Fri afternoon a thermal trough looks to set up across North Carolina which will tighten the pressure gradient slightly as this trough interacts with ridging offshore. As it stands now this should allow for a brief uptick in the southerly winds to 15-20G25-30kts across the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke/Albemarle Sounds, Alligator River, and northern Coastal waters. Issued a SCA with this update for the aforementioned waters from 1PM Friday to 11PM Friday. HREF suggests lingering gusts >25kts through much of Friday night into early Saturday morning, but this seems to be too aggressive, as thermal gradient breaks down after sunset, and with it the driving factor for the stronger gusts. Waves increase slightly to 3-5ft Friday afternoon, becoming 4-5 ft Friday evening through Friday night LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 250 AM Fri...Typical summertime pattern expected through the period with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland. SSW winds 10-20 kt expected Sat, strongest during the late afternoon and evening. There is potential for a brief period of 25 kt gusts Sat eve, which could bring short duration marginal SCA conditions. S-SE winds 5-15 kt Sun through Tue. Seas generally 2-4 ft through the period. Expect longer period swells to diminish this weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>046- 079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-135-150-230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/RJ MARINE...CQD/RJ