ACUS01 KWNS 070420
SWODY1
SPC AC 070419

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 3
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will continue this evening across parts of
the central Plains. A few marginally severe storms will be possible
further west into the southern and central High Plains, and
northward into the mid Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains/Southern and Central High Plains/Mid Missouri
Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the
eastern Dakotas, with a shortwave trough extending southward from
the low into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
located from western Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota, along
which a marginal severe threat will continue this evening. Further
southeastward into the warm sector, a couple convective systems are
ongoing along and to the east of the shortwave trough. An organized
line segment is located in far southeast Nebraska, along the western
edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP is
analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in
this area have southeasterly winds at the surface, with winds
gradually veering to westerly in the mid-levels. This wind profile
will continue to be favorable for linear organization, and a
wind-damage threat is expected to continue in the vicinity of far
southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri this evening. Hail
will also likely accompany the stronger cells embedded in this line.

Further to the southwest into west-central Kansas, a severe
convective cluster is also ongoing along and to the east of a
north-to-south corridor of moderate instability. Near this area, the
RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This
convection is located just to the north of the Dodge City WSR-88D
VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This shear environment
should be enough to continue a threat for supercells this evening.
Supercells will likely be capable of isolated large hail. A few
severe wind gusts will also be possible. The ongoing convective
systems in Kansas and Nebraska are expected to continue into the
late evening, but the severe threat should become more isolated with
time as instability gradually decreases across the central Plains.

..Broyles.. 07/07/2024

$$