ACUS11 KWNS 072013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072012
COZ000-072245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...north-central into much of eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 072012Z - 072245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase along the Front Range this
afternoon, with many producing hail and locally strong gusts as they
continue into the Plains through evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows an expansive cumulus field over
much of eastern Colorado where surface winds remain out of the east
and northeast. Weak thunderstorms have developed into far
north-central CO with increasing northern surface winds with high
pressure to the north. Pressures continue to fall near the Colorado
Springs area.

While pockets of drier air do exist around the Denver area, in
general, a moist air mass exists, especially over southeast CO with
mid to upper 50s F dewpoints. Given cool midlevel temperatures,
additional heating will result in sufficient instability to
sustained scattered severe cells. Low-level/weak easterlies below
increasing mid to high level winds will result in favorable shear
profiles for large hail. By evening, storms are expected to
consolidate into an MCS pushing into southeast CO, with damaging
winds possible.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40410325 39680252 38870267 38190345 38050424 38270551
            39230539 39850555 40400559 40680553 40900509 40860442
            40410325