ACUS11 KWNS 072034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072034
OKZ000-TXZ000-072230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle/South Plains into
southwestern/central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 072034Z - 072230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms are possible from the Texas South Plains into
central Oklahoma. Discrete storms would pose a risk for large hail,
though severe winds will likely be the predominant threat. Potential
for upscale growth into a cluster/linear segment is possible. Trends
are being monitored for a possible watch later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Weak warm advection over the cold pool from this
mornings convection has contributed to the development of elevated
storms in parts of western and central Oklahoma. The outflow itself
has modified and MLCAPE has risen to around 2000 J/kg. With
additional heating and the approach of the cold front, at least
isolated development is possible within the next few hours. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and 30-35 kts of effective shear will promote
supercells capable of large hail and severe winds.

Farther west, cumulus have been deepening in the Texas South Plains
within a weak surface trough. A few additional storms are possible
in this region as well as suggested by some of the latest CAM
guidance. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads here would likely mean
a quicker transition to a linear storm mode and a primary risk of
severe winds.

With storm coverage uncertain, trends will need to be monitored for
a possible watch later this afternoon.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34450201 35320125 35629930 35609730 35319673 34529663
            33829786 33750040 33500129 33610220 33940232 34450201