FXUS62 KILM 290200 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1000 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building from the north will bring a cooler and drier than normal air mass into early Monday before it shifts offshore for the rest of the week. This will bring increasing heat and humidity through the week with dangerously high heat possible late week. && .UPDATE... Forecast continues as expected with only minor adjustments needed for late evening update. Skies remain mostly clear across northeastern parts of the forecast area, keeping these locations coolest overnight, especially in the strongest radiational cooling spots. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Some altocu around this afternoon but otherwise not much going on. The center of high pressure should slip offshore tonight into Monday morning with onshore flow overnight keeping lows warmer at the coast. Lows in the upper 60s, warmer inland. At the same time a shortwave approaches from the west with a surge of moisture, PWATs increasing back to 2" as mid level moisture increases. This will bring rain chances back into the CWA for Monday, primarily for inland. Highs inland will be lower due to clouds and scattered showers. Highs inland will be in the low to mid 80s and in the upper 80s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Mid to upper trough digs down from the Great Lakes Mon night into Tues but the trough remains fairly broad with mainly moistening of the column initially and a fair amount of cloud cover with passing showers mainly west of I-95. Pcp water returns to 2 inches or so. The soundings and moisture profiles keep the low levels dry below 4 to 5 k ft but the westerly steering flow could track a few weakening cells eastward later on Mon. Overall expecting more in the way of clouds than pcp through late Mon. Overnight into early Tues, some showers may track up along the coast or just offshore, but the continued westerly flow aloft will push those further offshore Tues morning. The humidity will return as we get back into a more typical summertime pattern as Bermuda High becomes dominant into midweek. Persistent southerly flow pushes the dewpoint temps back up into the 70s Mon night into Tues. Models do not show much more than clouds on Tues for much of the day, but by late day, better shortwave energy and moisture will pave the way for some more potent storms or better rain producers. Convection should diminish inland but could last overnight Tues toward the coast as mid to upper trough migrates eastward Tues night as a strong ridge builds up through the western gulf area and lower mississippi. May see some MCVs ride down in the steepening NW upper level flow, which should provide more debris clouds into our area. Overnight lows will be near or in the 70s Mon night and by Tues night, mid 70s most places. The high on Tues will be back up near or around 90. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Increasing heat and humidity will come mid to late week in a more typical summertime regime with Bermuda High dominating. Dewpoints recover into the 70s and temps reach back into the 90s. Looking more certain that dangerous heat will arrive Wed and persist into the first part of the weekend. Heat Advisory conditions may start as early as Wed and possibly Heat Warning thresholds may be met by Fri as heat indices possibly top 110 degrees. The latest model runs show ridge building up from the Gulf through the Mississippi Valley with trough steepening down the east coast. The main axis should shift off the coast on Wed with some drier air and subsidence aloft, but should see some action from upstream driven down in NW flow aloft late Wed into Wed night. By Thurs ridge builds eastward with rising heights and increasing heat with mainly localized diurnal convection. A deepening trough and cold front approach from the NW on Saturday with more widespread and stronger storms reaching into the central to eastern Carolinas. This boundary may linger with unsettled weather the latter half of the weekend into early next week as possible increasing tropical moisture comes into play. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR expected overnight. BOundary layer winds will increase overnight, especially inland, preventing any operationally significant fog. Low ceiling potential is low given the amount of dry air within the surface layer. Weakening convection will move in from the west Monday morning with potential for FLO/LBT to be affected late morning through afternoon. Less chance for storms along the coast tomorrow afternoon. Extended Outlook...Afternoon/evening MVFR/IFR possible from storms Monday with potential increasing Tuesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... Through Monday...The center of high pressure will move offshore tonight into Monday morning. Onshore flow overnight will become more southerly by Monday afternoon, wind speeds AOB 10 kts. Seas generally 2-3 ft with a decreasing NE swell at 1-2 ft and 6-7 seconds and a SE swell 1-2 ft at 8-9 seconds. Monday night through Friday...A more typical summertime pattern will evolve Mon night into Tues as Bermuda High dominates once again and persistent southerly flow develops. Winds will generally remain in the 5 to 15 kt range with a spike up each aftn in sea breeze. Seas will remain 3 ft or less for the most part into midweek. A longer period SE swell will mix in. May see a rise in seas late Wed into early Thurs in southerly push and again over the weekend as cold front/trough reaches into the Carolinas. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...III NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...III MARINE...RGZ/LEW