FXUS62 KILM 291819 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 219 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift offshore today bringing hotter and more humid conditions through the week with dangerous heat possible late in the week. && .UPDATE... As of 2PM: Updated POPs to capture rain moving across SE NC now. It seems to be holding together well so the coast could see rain in several hours, with some spottier light rain ahead of it. Back in NE SC showers are more convective with some lightning starting to pop up. Updated 18Z aviation discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Remnant (weakening) outflow showers and debris clouds will remain overhead this morning, mainly inland. A shortwave will maintain cloud cover as it approaches from the west and will also promote the development of showers with the potential for a couple of thunderstorms this afternoon. Soundings indicate that early cloud cover will limit instability and the majority of the activity will remain showery. A few storms are possible where early sunshine prevails near the coast although lift will be weaker. Mix of clouds and showers will keep temperatures in the mid 80s inland while early sun will bring coastal areas into the upper 80s. High pressure migrates offshore late in the day and allows low level flow to become predominately southerly. This will bring a return of warmer and humid air this evening and overnight. Lows back in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: *Low risk for isolated severe storms/minor flooding *Dangerous heat/humidity possible Wednesday Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: This period will be dominated by a fairly stagnant pattern with Atlantic high pressure centered to the east and troughing to the west. Meanwhile, weak troughing should prevail in the mid-levels with plenty of available moisture (PWATs near or above 2") much of the period. Rain chances should thus be near to slightly above normal, although timing/amounts are a bit more uncertain as much depends on the timing of shortwave energy rotating through the upper trough. Fortunately, shear/instability look to remain limited through the period so no significant severe storm risk is anticipated. However, there is a small chance that a mesoscale convective system (MCS) moves in from the west late Wednesday with damaging straight-line winds. Probably a slightly greater risk though is for minor flooding from heavy rain, especially if any storms train over the same areas. Temperatures should be slightly below normal Tuesday and slightly above normal Wednesday. Heat indices could peak near Heat Advisory levels (105 degrees) Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights: *Dangerous heat/humidity possible, especially through Saturday *Watching the tropics this weekend Confidence: *Moderate through Saturday *Low to Moderate Sunday Details: The area should remain in a fairly typical summertime pattern with high heat and humidity prevailing at least through Saturday. Confidence decreases later in the weekend though as much depends on whether a potential tropical cyclone moves our direction. For now we pretty much followed climatology as far as rain chances through Saturday and then a bit higher Sunday as a cold front approaches. Deep layer shear should remain limited though so not expecting any significant/widespread severe storm risk. Again, locally heavy rainfall is more likely a threat which could lead to minor flooding. Heat indices could surpass our Heat Advisory levels (105+ degrees), especially through Saturday. Excessive Heat Warning levels (110+ degrees) could even be reached, especially Friday. Needless to say it's way too early to know if we'll see any tropical cyclone impacts early next week, however it's important to remember we are getting into the typically more busy part of the hurricane season and thus we encourage everyone to dust off your hurricane plans if you haven't done so already. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -RA with instances of +RA are moving across SE NC now. Conditions are more showery back in NE SC so impacts to terminals may be more brief instances of MVFR/IFR, primarily VSBYs in rain. Not expecting restrictions overnight but some showers could stick in the vicinity of terminals. Rain chances increase towards the end of the TAF period with the possibility of IFR CIGs. Extended Outlook... Afternoon/evening MVFR/IFR possible from storms on Tuesday with the potential increasing through next weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... High pressure will move offshore during the day today as southerly flow becomes re-established across the area. Enhancement near the coast is likely as a weak sea breeze develops. Shortwave moving over the waters this evening is likely to promote the development of isolated or scattered showers and storms. Seas generally 2-3 feet with the return of a SE swell initially at 1-2 feet and 8-9 seconds. Tuesday through Friday...Southerly flow will prevail across the SE NC and NE SC coastal waters due to high pressure offshore and troughing inland. No significant pressure gradients or seas are expected though so conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...LEW NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...LEW MARINE...RJB/21