FXUS62 KILM 292000 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 400 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Most of the thunderstorm activity is expected to remain west of the area tonight with a shift towards the coast by Tuesday morning. Heat along with humidity and an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms will be in place this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A trough will continue to dig down into the area through the period with high pressure pushing offshore. Waves of moisture and forcing aloft will lead to at least scattered activity. Primarily showers/rain are over the area currently with some isolated storms to our west that could move in within the next hour or so. Some showers/storms could remain overnight, primarily inland, as what looks like another shortwave moves through around a low to our north. A bit lower confidence is the chance of showers/storms in the evening Tuesday as another wave of forcing approaches aloft but also possibly the outflow from storms that were ongoing through the day. Some stronger storms could produce isolated damaging wind gusts. Lows near 70 and highs near 90. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warming northwest flow will be in place through the period with the Piedmont Trough the prominent feature at the surface. Some energy aloft may help induce areas or pockets of showers and thunderstorms but overall it appears to be more of an afternoon and evening focus. The threat of heat related headlines will be on the rise but more likely occur on Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The mid level pattern will be northwest flow oriented early then possibly more of just a weakness aloft with the strong ridging out west. This is a pattern that is somewhat typical entering the early parts of August. Overall guidance still likes a somewhat dry Thursday with pops wobbling back upward in time. Temperatures remain flat lined early on and heat headlines remain in play but trend down in time due to nothing else increased convective coverage. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -RA with instances of +RA are moving across SE NC now. Conditions are more showery back in NE SC so impacts to terminals may be more brief instances of MVFR/IFR, primarily VSBYs in rain. Not expecting restrictions overnight but some showers could stick in the vicinity of terminals. Rain chances increase towards the end of the TAF period with the possibility of IFR CIGs. Extended Outlook... Afternoon/evening MVFR/IFR possible from storms on Tuesday with the potential increasing through next weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday... The center of high pressure has dropped offshore where it will move to a more typical Bermuda High position through the period. Lighter southerly flow will become 15-20 kts in the afternoon Tuesday. Seas will remain generally 2-3 ft. Tuesday Night through Saturday... South to southwest winds of 10-15 knots will be in place the first few days of the coastal waters forecast. No wind direction shifts in site but an increase in speeds is possible this weekend to a range of 15-20 knots as the gradient increases. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...LEW MARINE...SHK/LEW