FXUS63 KEAX 311734
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat expected today.

- Thunderstorms with strong straight-line winds will be possible
  this evening, especially over northwest Missouri and northeast
  Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Convection has formed early this morning over southern Iowa within
the exit region of the low-level jet, with some enhancement from a
weak wave embedded in the westerly belt of mid-level flow.
Subsequent updraft development and cold pool consolidation, along
with the flow aloft, has promoted a ESE to SE motion. This cluster
will likely clip far northeast sections of the CWA. While a strong
gust of outflow winds will be possible, the greater severe weather
threat this morning should reside to points east of the forecast
area.

One final day of dangerous heat and humidity is expected today, with
afternoon highs reaching the middle 90s to near 100, and heat
indices in the 105 to 110 range. The excessive heat warning
continues for the CWA.

Models are in good agreement to generate a complex of thunderstorms
over eastern Nebraska into northern Kansas along a cold front as
strong upper ascent overspreads the area. Generally this convection
will initially form in a region of high T/Td spreads, owing to very
strong and expansive cold pools. These may have a tendency to
rapidly spread out quickly away from the thunderstorm updrafts, and
this causes some uncertainty to the exact evolution and coverage of
precipitation by the time convection/cold front approaches the CWA.
Our northwest half of the forecast area has at least some potential
for severe weather - specifically strong straight-line winds - this
evening as convection moves into the area. Again, there remains
considerable uncertainty to exactly how long these storms will be
organized as the move southeastward and their subsequent severe
weather threat.

With the cold frontal passage, Thursday should have much improved
heat conditions. Have cut back heat headlines for areas along/north
of Interstate 70. High temperatures will trend near normal for
Friday into Saturday, with another increase in heat by early next
week. Outside of the next 24 hours, the forecast appears rather
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Aside from breezy southerly winds, VFR conditions to prevail
through the daytime/first half of the TAF period. Increasing
confidence in an area/line of storms moving in from the N/NW
after 06z, likely affecting all TAF sites to some degree.
Expectation remains for weakening trend, but confidence
warranted TSRA mentions for a couple of hours as well as at
least mentions of some wind gusts. Confidence in wind is more
limited with elevated nature of convection. Return to VFR by
around 12z with NW winds eventually settling in.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-044>046-054.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ043-053.
     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
     MOZ040-044>046-054.
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-
     102>105.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ057-060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Curtis