FXUS66 KMTR 031121
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
421 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Fairly quiet after monsoonal moisture moves out today. Warm
temperatures continue into next week. Cooler temperatures on tap
for late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Lingering mid and high clouds associated with monsoonal moisture
this morning. No other shower activity is expected, but some
locations can't rule out another couple of sprinkles through the
morning, especially in the North Bay and the Central Coast. By
this afternoon, most locations should be under clear or mostly
clear skies. We are expecting skies to clear early enough to see
temperatures higher than they were yesterday, expect for the North
Bay where the high clouds may linger into the afternoon. High
temps today in the North Bay will be very similar to yesterday.
Elsewhere, expect a 2-4 degree increase from yesterday across
inland areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Nothing terribly exciting to write about in the long term. The
ridge builds in a bit more during the early part of the week as
the embedded trough carrying the monsoonal moisture completely
moves out of the picture. Temperatures increase further and peak
Tuesday with high temps about 8-14 degrees above normal depending
on how far inland you are. Guidance is pretty reliably advertising
a shift in the ridge to the east, which would allow troughing
along the West Coast and bring in cooler temperatures. Chances are
we will be looking at temperatures right around normal by Thursday
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1022 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

High clouds and some convective showers are coming over the Bay Area
and particularly the North Bay, with observations of LIFR ceilings
limited to the immediate coastal regions. The stratus deck will be
limited to the immediate coast, western Marin County, the northern
SF Bay, and across the Monterey Bay region tonight, with a
relatively shallow marine layer and the high clouds disrupting
overnight cooling. Any stratus that forms will mix out through
Saturday morning, with breezy onshore flow expected through the
afternoon and evening. Stratus coverage on Saturday evening should
return to the more expansive spread across the coastal valleys.

Vicinity of SFO... Breezy onshore winds continue for the next
several hours, with a moderate confidence for IFR stratus as the
winds diminish early Saturday morning. Breezy west-northwest flow
resumes in the afternoon and evening. Stratus us set to return to
the terminal Saturday evening into Sunday morning, but confidence in
timing is low. Best chances for the stratus will come just after the
end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... LIFR stratus present at the immediate
coast and will slowly build into SNS. Stratus will mix out Saturday
morning with breezy onshore winds in the afternoon, before returning
to the terminals in the evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes with fresh to strong
gusts will continue through the forecast period. Moderate seas
will build to rough in the outer waters by Tuesday. While not
forecast to be of direct impact to our area, Tropical Storm
Carlotta, along with two other disturbances, continue to churn in
the Eastern Pacific. We will continue to monitor the tropics to
see if any significant southerly swell is on the way.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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