FXUS65 KBOI 041554
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
954 AM MDT Sun Aug 4 2024

.DISCUSSION...The mid/upper level trough is working
northeastward and out of the area today, with lingering showers
this morning over the central mountains of Idaho. Dry air is
apparent to the south and west on water vapor imagery, and
current expectations are that it will migrate over the region
today. This will lead to a quiet weather afternoon, with only an
isolated storm possible over northern areas. A push of monsoon
moisture is on track to arrive Monday with storm chances across
the area. No updates planned to the forecast this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR with smoke both near the surface and
aloft. Eastern Oregon sites, especially KBNO, will experience
MVFR/IFR due to nearby fires. Some visibility improvement
possible overnight into Monday. Storms possible area-wide after
20Z Monday. Surface winds W-NW 10-20kt becoming light after 02Z
Monday. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR with smoke both near the surface and aloft. Mostly
clear with storms possible after 20Z Monday. Surface winds
becoming W-NW 10-20kt after 16Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW
15-25 kt.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...At 3 AM MDT showers
and isolated thunderstorms were still active in our CWA ahead
of a well-defined short wave trough in Oregon. As the trough
moves northeastward showers and storms should end by sunrise in
southern and central areas, but continue through the day in the
north, especially in Valley County, ID. The trough and clouds
will lower daytime temperatures a few degrees from yesterday.
No Heat products will be in effect today having expired at
midnight MDT. We also plan to let the Red Flag Warning in
eastern OR and western-most ID expire at 6 AM MDT, but will
let it continue a few more hours in the Boise and Payette NFs
in Idaho. On Monday the main upper ridge over the interior
western US will again be at full strength and our CWA will be
hotter. Models show a weak surge of moisture into our CWA from
the southwest Monday for another chance of late-day and evening
showers and thunderstorms in the south, especially south of the
Snake Basin in Idaho. Drier air should arrive Tuesday as a north-
Pacific upper trough moves inland over WA and turns upper winds
to westerly. HRRR smoke model continues smoky conditions today,
but the general trend is improvement through Monday especially
in Harney and southern Malheur Counties, but also to a lesser
degree in western Idaho.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Upper ridge to our
south and a trough to the north will keep us in westerly flow
aloft, holding temps just above normal through the period, in
the mid 90s for the Snake Plain. The trough will linger through
the long term and bring intermittent cloud cover each day, as
well as a 10% chance of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Winds will be mostly
typical, but windier in Mtn Home, Fairfield, and the Magic
Valley Wednesday afternoon with enhanced gradient forcing.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...MC
AVIATION.....MC
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JM