FXUS63 KEAX 050722
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
222 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat continues today

- Cooling down tomorrow through the rest of the week

- Chance of showers/storms beginning on Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024

The upper level ridge that prompted our higher temperatures the
previous day continues to build into our area, bringing with it
a thermal ridge that will help temperatures climb into the mid
to upper 90s during the day. Heat indices still forecasted to
hit the triple digits across the area, as clearer skies will
assist in exacerbating surface level heating. However, with the
overall drier heat that is anticipated with this ridge, not
anticipating indices to reach headline criteria. By Tuesday, a
cold frontal boundary associated with a low level disturbance
off to the north will assist in pushing higher temperatures
further south. For this day, anticipating maximum temperatures
to peak around the low to mid 90s for areas south of I-70. Some
moisture pooling along this cold front could help heat indices
hit the triple digits during the afternoon, but this is expected
to diminish with the further progression of the cold front
southward.

Beginning Wednesday, temperatures should remain seasonably
normal/cooler compared to today and yesterday, owing to the
retreat of the upper level ridge towards the west and prevailing
northerly winds bringing in both cooler temperatures and drier
air. By Wednesday evening, a chance of precipitation for
northwestern MO/northeastern KS returns, with an upper level
disturbance aiding in moisture advection towards our area
overnight. Precipitation chances remain low (10-30%) for this
time, as forcing appears stronger further east with the
influence of the LLJ and strong WAA. By Thursday, a robust upper
level trough is progged to dig southward from the Northern
Plains into the Great Lakes region, bringing another chance for
precipitation across eastern KS/western MO. However, like
Wednesday, chances will remain further west with current
guidance suggesting more favorable forcing.

By Friday evening, with the trough exiting towards the east,
precipitation chances diminish with the introduction of dry air
aloft, resulting from the interaction between the trough's
leeside and an upper level ridge over the desert southwest. From
Saturday evening onward, precipitation chances increase,
becoming as high as 35% by Monday evening. However, with this
forecast being further in the future, confidence in this
solution is not high. With further iterations of the forecast
and greater certainty in specific forecast variables that could
influence these solutions, more confidence can be gleaned on
these probabilities.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last for the duration of the TAF
period with the exception of a few hours early this morning at KSTJ.
KSTJ may experience patchy fog similar to yesterday. Winds will
shift more southerly through the forecast period and remain
fairly weak.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB/SPG
AVIATION...Collier