FXUS63 KFGF 051926
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
226 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple shortwaves increase our chances for showers
  throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

...Synopsis...

An upper level shortwave  moves out of the Northern
Plains later tonight ending the rain this evening. An area of weak
High pressure moves under this ridging pattern over the Northern
Plains. Tonight through tomorrow morning we could see some fog
develop especially where all the heavier showers fell today. A
little uncertain if the winds will die down long enough to allow fog
to develop since the pressure gradient looks fairly tight as the
high pressure moves in and the low moves away over the the Devils
Lake Basin. The ridge moves out the Northern plains as an upper
level low starts to drop south from Manitoba. A negatively tilted
700mb trough could produce enough forcing to produce some light to
heavy showers Wednesday morning through Thursday evening. The NBM
gives a 50 probably for greater than 0.5 inches through 18z Thursday
for the Northern half of our forecast area. However, the global
models currently depict weak frontogensis with this wave so the
trends will be monitored until this wave starts to be resolved by
the CAMS tomorrow. Currently the outlooks for excessive rainfall or
severe thunderstorms aren't forecasted for this week. On an even more
positive note, the ensembles depict temperatures in the 60's and
70's across the Northern Plains this week. So, there isn't extremely
high temperatures (for our area) to really fall back on and say
severe thunderstorms with our moisture content are going to happen.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

VFR is expected for most of the TAF sites through the TAF
period. There is a chance for early morning fog for KFAR due to
the low level moisture from these showers. Also possible for
KDVL as well but not confident enough that the winds might die
down long enough to produce fog. Showers are expected to be done
by 23z. The radar looks busy but not a lot rain makes it to the
ground. VCSH was used to reflect this phenomenon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...MM