FXUS62 KILM 051045 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 645 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure with onshore moist flow to maintain its influence through today. Tropical Storm Debby to make landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast today. Conditions start to really deteriorate with heavy rainfall developing late tonight thru Wed in association with Debby. Continued heavy rainfall possible through Thu, with many locations likely to observe record breaking 5 day rainfall totals during this week with 10-15 inches possible, even locally higher amounts possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Hurricane Debby is currently approaching Florida and will slowly move inland today, forecasted to be over southeast GA as a tropical storm tonight. Overcast mid-high clouds from the south will prevail for most of today, and persist for most of the week. PVA ahead of Debby approaching this afternoon will aid in scattered showers throughout the day, with isolated thunder chances as instability will be meager. There will be a PWAT gradient this afternoon into tonight, with around 2.5" across coastal NE SC and "only" 2" across inland SE NC. In turn, QPF through tonight is highest around Georgetown County around 1-2" and only 0.25" (or less) in Robeson. With clouds and rain, highs today are only around 85F. Shower coverage decreases this evening briefly, with mid level dry air moving in from the northwest, but not quite making it to the coast. Pops ramp up from the south during the night tonight as we really start to be impacted by Debby's outer bands. There is a low chance of tornadoes across coastal NE SC late tonight as the first of the outer bands move onshore. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TS Watches/TS Warnings and Flash Flood Watches will likely have been instituted for portions/all of the ILM CWA for this time frame. Looking at a wet and drenching short term period as Atlantic moisture gets pulled up well ahead of TC Debby early on. Followed by Debby's circulation/moisture herself. The slow movement of Debby and impending rains will yield the possibility of 6 to 10 inches of rainfall during this period, except up to a foot of rain across the southernmost zones, ie. Williamsburg/Georgetown Counties of SC. In addition, throw in the threat of tornadoes as the FA comes under the circulation of slow moving Debby. Will continue to emphasize the slow movement allowing for the relentless and record (all time records possible) rainfall when all said and done. 80s for highs and 70s for lows, in essence not much of a diurnal range in temps during this period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NHC slow movement and track of Debby will likely have it continue affecting the FA, with record rainfall continuing to plague the area atleast Thu into early Fri. Will continue to emphasize this in briefings and various statements. Debby's impacts look to slowly decrease for the local area by late in the work week, dependent on NHCs forecast since the global models differ with their solutions in dealing with Debby. Overall, will highlight a diminishing POP Fri thru Sun. Temps will continue to remain subdued, especially highs, with only 80s each day and 70s for lows at night. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Patchy IFR/LIFR conditions inland (low stratus and fog) will improve over the next couple hours, though confidence is low on exactly conditions will improve to VFR. MVFR stratus/cigs expected to move in from the south around midday, covering majority of our forecast area by late afternoon. Ceilings will slowly lower into tonight, with potentially IFR ceilings towards end of TAF period. Rain chances ramp up this morning and continue through daylight hours, though expect thunder to be isolated given meager instability and therefore majority of the TAFs are VCSH/SHRA. Relatively light southeast winds through TAF period, with exception of increasing wind speeds along coastal NE SC tonight. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR expected as Tropical Storm Debby could bring very heavy rain through at least mid week. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Winds turn southeasterly by this afternoon with slowly increasing strength into tonight as Debby slowly moves into GA. Winds 10-15 kts this afternoon increase to 15-20 kts tonight with gusts to 25 kts by Tuesday morning. In turn, the SE fresh swell continues to build, with 3-4 ft seas most of today becoming 5-6 ft tonight. While SCA conditions are expected to begin tonight, we will not be issuing a Small Craft Advisory as a Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued in the next 24-36 hours. There is a chance for waterspouts across northeast SC coastal waters late tonight as the first of Debby's outer bands move into the area. Tuesday through Friday Night...Onshore winds to increase Tue as the circulation associated with Debby begins to affect the FA. This continues Tue night into Thu which resembles what NHC Debby track and latest European model indicates. Whereas, the GFS seems to be the outlier with its solution. Nevertheless, looking at least at SCA/ possibly Gale conditions if a TS Watch/Warning aren't in effect. Winds basically stay onshore thruout this period, veering and backing as a result of Debbys movement, but remaining onshore in direction. Seas will build to double digit readings, mainly at 10-20 nm out but in short periods respectively. Could observe victory at sea conditions at some points in the mid to late week period. Looking at pcpn coverage increasing by Tue, peaking Wed thru Thu. Vsby occasionally/frequently below 1 nm at times along with threat of waterspouts once the waters come under Debby's circulation. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for all beaches today, increasing to high risk across all beaches Tuesday through Thursday. High Surf Advisory conditions may occur during the mid to late week period as onshore winds build relatively short period seas and resulting surf. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...VAO MARINE...DCH/VAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...