FXUS62 KMHX 050029 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 829 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridge remains centered offshore, with broad upper level troughing and shortwave energy tracking across the Mid- Atlantic. Tropical Cyclone Debby is expected to make landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast Monday, then slowly lift through the SE US this week. This system is expected to bring impacts to eastern NC this week, which could last for several days depending on the movement of Debby. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 8 PM Sun...Convection has mostly dissipated with loss of heating with only a few showers near southern coastal sections. Expect mostly cloudy through the overnight with mainly isolated showers or storms. However, similar to the last several nights, expect offshore convection to increase after midnight through early tomorrow morning with some of this activity reaching the coast at times. Low temps will remain mild with breezy conditions and mostly cloudy skies, and readings will remain in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Sun...Tomorrow looks to be the nicest day out of the next 5 days or so, but that is not saying much with what is to come later this week. As the upper trough exits to the east, a pocket of drier air will briefly dip into ENC and will help to curtail convection somewhat. Still though, expect 25-45% coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon mostly driven by the sea breeze. A veil of high clouds from TC Debby will shroud the sun tomorrow, which will limit heating, and have highs only reaching the mid to upper 80s for most of the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 0330 PM Sunday...Wet workweek ahead with periods of moderate to heavy rain ahead of a tropical system that is forecast to move Nward over ECONUS mid to late week. Clouds and rain keep temps a few ticks below normal through the period. Debby, now a Tropical Storm, enters the Sern Gulf of Mexico this morning and continues to slowly work N while strengthening. Debby is forecast to make landfall in the Big Bend of Florida early Monday. Forecast becomes very murky after Monday with steering flow breaking down and the approach of cold front from the N middle of next week, leading to a large amount of spread in solutions for the progression of this system. Official NHC forecast has Debby reaching the Atlantic just offshore of GA late Tuesday night, where it will meander before making another landfall in SC Thursday, passing W of the FA Friday night. Regardless of exact track, how organized, barotropic vs baroclinic, etc... the forecast calls for a wet week with even more moisture getting pumped over the FA into an already fairly moist column once Debby reaches the Atlantic Tues. See HYDRO section below for possible flooding impacts. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday Afternoon/... As of 8 PM Sun...Showers have for the most part dissipated across rtes with pred VFR conditions this evening. A couple of site reporting MVFR cigs but that should dissipate in the next couple of hours. Expect mainly VFR cigs overnight but cannot rule out period of MVFR cigs developing late. HREF probs increase to around 20-40% after 08z and peak around 40-60% across the coastal plain around 12z through late morning and bring bkn MVFR to ISO and PGV through this time. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to move inland from the coast late tonight that may also bring periods of sub MVFR at the coastal TAF sites. Pred VFR expected Monday afternoon with scattered showers and storms bringing occasional sub-VFR conditions. LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/... As of 0330 PM Sunday...Scattered to numerous showers expected Mon, which could bring sub- VFR conditions. Patchy fog/stratus possible each night. The main concern for next week is the potential impact from what is now Tropical Storm Debby, though still a lot of uncertainty exists. Regardless of exact track/intensity, this work week will be a rather wet period with 5-10" possible over the next 7 days. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 330 PM Sun...Small craft conditions are ongoing across much of the marine waters with winds SW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts, and seas have risen to 6 ft in a few locations. Winds will begin to subside this evening and become SW 10-20 kts after midnight. By tomorrow winds will back slightly to the SSW and continue at 10-20 kts. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft from this evening through tomorrow. LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/... As of 0330 PM Sunday...The main concern for next week across the waters is what is now Tropical Storm Debby currently approaching the Sern Gulf of Mexico and it's potential impact across the waters. Still a lot of uncertainty with this system, but current official forecast has Debby reaching the Atlantic off the GA coast late Tuesday night. From this point on through the rest of the week, swell will build out of the SSW. Mariners should keep a close eye on the forecast the next several days with potential for strong winds and dangerous seas. May begin to see 6 ft+ seas build in from the S as early as Tuesday with conditions continuing to deteriorate into the weekend as the storm passes the our W. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 330 PM Sun...Confidence is increasing in an extended period of heavy tropical rains on the periphery of TC Debby which will likely lead to areas of flash flooding across Eastern NC, with the highest rainfall totals and greatest risk of flash flooding generally south of US 70. Currently, rainfall totals of 8-12 inches are expected across the southern portion of the forecast area, with totals of 5-8 inches farther north. Though these totals are impressive it is important to note that this rain will come over the course of the next 5 days and there should be time for water to at least initially runoff without much issue. Additionally, the risk for inland river flooding will increase late this week and next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135- 150-152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK/SGK SHORT TERM...SGK LONG TERM...SGK/CEB AVIATION...SK/SGK/CEB MARINE...SGK/CEB HYDROLOGY...MHX