FXUS66 KMTR 051136 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 436 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 221 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Warm temps continue early this week. Hot Tuesday where a Heat Advisory has been issued. Cooling trend kicks off Wednesday with normal temperatures expected by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 221 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 2024 High temps today very similar to yesterday, as is the marine layer depth due to not much significant strengthening of the ridge aloft. A quick check of temperature trends early this morning elucidates this with temps running about the same to 1-2 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Marine layer compression will begin to take place tonight as we finally start to see the 500 mb heights rise. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 221 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week when 500 mb heights reach their peak. Compared to the previous forecast, temperatures have increased by a few degrees, ultimately leading to widespread moderate HeatRisk across the interior Central Coast and the Santa Clara Valley with isolated pockets of major HeatRisk. These areas were teetering on the edge of an advisory in previous forecasts. Given the increase in risk, a Heat Advisory has been issued for these areas in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM Tuesday. Elsewhere outside of the advisory area will still be plenty warm, but will see better overnight relief and overall less risk due to the temps not being as far above normal as the those in the advisory area. A cooling trend kicks off Wednesday lasting into the weekend. By Thursday onward, most areas are likely to see near normal temperatures. For the latter half of the week, there is a chance of seeing some moisture brought forth by the plethora of tropical systems in the EPac west of Mexico. As of now it just looks like some mid-to-high clouds and no other major impacts. Just something to note. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 436 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Widespread IFR-LIFR stratus across the valleys is expected to persist through the late morning, with patchy fog possible in the North Bay valleys and Monterey Bay region. Breezy onshore flow developing in the afternoon as inland stratus mixes out. Stratus builds back inland during the evening and overnight hours. Vicinity of SFO... IFR-LIFR stratus continues through the late morning. Breezy west-northwest winds with gusts up to 25 knots expected to develop this afternoon. Moderate confidence that stratus returns to the terminal late this evening, but some guidance has the terminal on the edge of stratus flowing in through the Golden Gate. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... LIFR stratus present across the region through the morning, with patchy fog possible especially at the immediate coast. Breezy onshore flow develops this afternoon before stratus returns to the area in the early evening hours. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 436 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds persist with strong gusts expected across the outer coastal waters, with gentle to moderate northwesterly winds continuing across the inner coastal waters. Across the northern outer waters, seas will become rough and wave heights will build to 8 to 10 feet by Tuesday. Seas will calm and wave heights will ease by late week before starting to build again over the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ513-514- 516>518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea