FXUS63 KEAX 071725
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures into next week.

* Low-end chances for showers/storms tonight into Thursday.

* "Chilly" mornings through the weekend - 50s

* Better chances for showers/storms continue to be signaled late
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024

With a pleasantly cooler and dryer airmass having settled in, it was
difficult to find too much fault with conditions yesterday and
overnight, aside from the pesky stratus deck. Evolution of the area
of stratus continues to be handled poorly within majority of hi-res
guidance, as they continue to try and clear skies quickly. This
tends to be reminiscent of cool season post frontal stratus fields
being handled poorly in hi-res models, even though solar
angle/diurnal mixing this time of the year typically wins/mixes out.
Do expect skies to gradually clear, though eastern areas may hang
onto stratus into the afternoon as they will be east of the inverted
surface/near-surface ridge axis. Overall inconsequential to most,
aside from potential impacts to the aviation community. Expect highs
to remain seasonable to seasonably cool in the mid to upper 80s
west, lower 80s east.

Shower and isolated thunder chances do return to the area late
tonight ahead of a cool front that is beginning to drop through the
northern Plains, associated with compact upper low dropping out of
Canada. Not much has changed in the depiction of these lower-end
(generally <25-30% PoPs) chances. Majority of moisture will reside
in the mid to upper levels as it is advected over the Rockies, ahead
of the front, and the most robust lift also displaced further north
most closely with the upper low. Shortwave energy riding the zonal
to weakly NW upper flow will be the opportunity at initiating
precipitation for the area, but model soundings in/around western
Missouri struggle to develop much more than a couple hundred J/kg
MUCAPE and depict weakening lift. With that in mind, weakening
showers/convection coming out of central/eastern Kansas appear the
most likely scenario for the CWA overnight tonight into early
Thursday. The aforementioned surface front will reach the area
Thursday morning, pushing now seasonable/seasonably cool
temperatures down a few more degrees. The frontal passage itself
looks to be predominantly dry, but may be capable of producing a few
weak showers of its own. More notable will likely be the highs
falling into the 70s for Friday and continued seasonably cool
conditions through the weekend. This may include a record low
possible at MCI Saturday morning, though when looking at surrounding
days, the 58 degree record is relatively low hanging fruit.

Majority of the weekend will be dry, but a series of shortwaves may
begin to affect portions of the area as Saturday. Variance in
guidance placement and timing limits overall confidence, but suffice
it to say that most robust chance at this point in time appears to
be Sunday night into Monday, where 30 to 50+% PoPs reside.
Temperatures will also moderate some during the new work week as
upper level ridging slowly works into the western Plains, pushing
highs back into the mid-upper 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. FEW
to SCT low stratus will linger from time to time through the
afternoon and evening. Overnight, increasing mid to high
ceilings will proceed a frontal boundary moving toward the area
from the northwest. Low chance for -RA early Thursday morning,
but not enough confidence fro a mention in the TAFs at this
time. Easterly surface winds will become more north late Friday
morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Kurtz