FXUS65 KMSO 080836
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
236 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

.DISCUSSION...An exiting low pressure system moving into the
Dakotas will set up an easterly pressure gradient over the region
today. This will bring in drier conditions with slightly below
normal temperatures and breezy easterly winds. Winds will actually
strengthen slightly late this afternoon into the evening hours,
with gusts up to 35 mph possible (50-60% chance) through portions
of the Flathead, Mission and Missoula valleys, including over
Flathead Lake. A lake wind advisory remains in effect for Flathead
Lake through this evening due to winds, which could cause
difficult conditions for small water craft.

Temperatures will remain slightly below normal into this weekend
with generally unsettled conditions. On Friday, a wave of
moisture will move northwards into central Idaho and southwest
Montana, bringing a period of showers and thunderstorms for the
afternoon and evening. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance that
storms could reach as far north as Missoula, though these storms
are not expected to be overly strong.

A shortwave trough of low pressure will carve out over Washington
and Oregon Friday night into Saturday, placing western Montana and
north central Idaho under southwest flow aloft. This will allow
increased moisture into the region, along with additional
atmospheric lift. Nocturnal showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Friday night into Saturday morning, especially for north
central Idaho. By Saturday afternoon, thunderstorm coverage will
expand across all of the Northern Rockies, but especially across
Lemhi County, southwest Montana and near the Continental Divide.

Warmer and drier weather still looks likely by early next week as
the majority for forecast models (70 percent) show a ridge of
high pressure building once again. This does not look nearly as
warm as recent heatwaves however.

&&

.AVIATION...
Northeast to east winds have developed across all of western
Montana and north central Idaho this morning. Speeds will slowly
decrease through the day today, before increasing once again late
this afternoon and evening (08/2300z through 09/0600z). This is
especially true for KGPI and KMSO where gusts may approach 30kts.
Otherwise, generally dry conditions are anticipated today with
sunny to partly cloudy conditions.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...None.
&&

$$